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Spending a full hour in the company of Souad Al Hosani, president of Nexus Business Services, is a luxury not many people can afford. The young and bubbly Emirati is always on the move, her schedule jam-packed with client meetings and events which often start at 8.00 in the morning and continue until late at night. So when we managed to grab her for a chat one late evening in downtown Dubai, we knew we had to be straight to the point.
As headlines continue to spell doom and gloom over the fallout of oil prices in the GCC, the first question that came to mind was: has investment been affected? Her answer quite simply was ‘no’.
“The UAE economy is diversified. Dubai has always been focused on tourism and services. We have a huge market for other sectors, and that’s what our 2020 Vision says – you have to focus on services not only on oil.”
Souad, whose business provides support to new investors looking to open their own firm in the UAE, says interest has been particularly high in the sectors of healthcare and education, followed by steady demand for technology and professional services in oil and gas.
Since March this this year, the number of inquiries have significantly increased, setting the stage for even busier next couple of years, with plans to open an office in Dubai by 2018 that would cater to the much-anticipated growth in the run up to World Expo 2020.
“I think there will be a lot of interest. Just think how many companies will come to town, companies from all sectors from hospitality to food and beverages to tourism and more,” she says buzzing with excitement.
Since its inception, Souad’s business has helped set up over 60 companies in seven years -- that’s almost ten a year. With time, some of the firms have done so well, they were later on acquired by larger players on the market, while others managed to attract outside investment and form new partnerships.
But setting up a business in the UAE can be a costly and time-consuming commitment. Sometimes it can take years just to get the right permit, and though rules and regulations have eased significantly in the last few years, having a local partner can prove absolutely invaluable, as Souad explains.
“The advantage of having an Emirati partner is that if I as an Emirati I was going to Switzerland, I would definitely want to have a Swiss partner going with me to explain to me the market, to connect me with his contacts, etc.
“It’s similar to you coming to the UAE and investing here. You need an Emirati who is well-connected, who will finish all the PR work, UAE visas and introduce you to clients. The UAE is very small, we all know each other. How can you do business if you don’t have contacts?”
For a foreign investor who wants to open a business in the UAE, the options are two – he can either have his firm onshore as a limited liability company or a branch office, or establish presence offshore in the so called Free Zones. Within the UAE, you need to have an onshore license to be able to register as a vendor with the government, in order to export and import, to hire employees, pay salaries, etc.
An onshore type of ownership also requires you to have an Emirati partner or a sponsor, who can be an active or a silent stakeholder. The only catch is they are entitled to half of your business. But according to Souad, there are many ways around that.
“You can design the legal documents in such a way that they don’t have any authority on the company. Within the memorandum of association, what they usually do is the Emirati partner would own 51% of the company but the foreign owner has 100% management share.
“And [the partner] can get a 10% minimum profit so the lottery would approve it, but this 10% can be a fixed fee,” she adds.
In contrast, an offshore investment allows for 100% foreign ownership, it exempts you from paying tax and has no restriction on doing more than one activity.
“Some clients need to have the company onshore, to make sure there is credibility and transparency. Usually we advise clients to set up a business offshore if they want to do business within the region but not within the UAE,” Souad explains.
“There is a good aviation district. The UAE is in where east meets west, it is the middle hub seven hours from the UK, seven hours from Bangkok.
“If clients wish to have the UAE as their hub but want to do business all over the region, then we advise them to go to a free zone,” she adds.
The UAE’s advantageous geographical location has for years served as gateway for business looking to expand into Europe and Asia, and even Africa. Currently, it houses over 37 free trade zones spread across its seven emirates. Each zone focuses on a specific sector and most importantly offers a very competitive price.
“In free zones they offer you virtual offices which means only an address where you can be licensed for AED 20,000 ($5,445), onshore it would be five times that price,” Souad explains.
For Souad a business partnership is like marriage -- she is in it for life.
“Whenever I start with a client, I marry him mentally, I provide him with all the support, I am there whenever he needs me.” But just like in marriage, trust plays a key role and “you don’t want that marriage to end up in a divorce,” she says jokily.
About the interviewee:
Souad M. Al Hosani is the president of Nexus Business Services. She received her Bachelor degree in Human Resource Management from the higher colleges of Technology in Abu Dhabi. Her previous work experiences includes Mubadala Development Company , the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi, Finance Department, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, and Amwal Holdings, all of which have enabled her to improve her knowledge and understanding of business activities in different sectors and environments throughout the UAE. Souad is the recipient of a United Nations Industrial Development Organization certificate for successful completion of a capacity building program for women entrepreneurs. Additionally, she has successfully completed the Intilaaqah public speaking programme on behalf of Shell-Abu Dhabi. In 2013, Souad was awarded as the youngest achievers award by the American Chamber of Commerce in Abu Dhabi. In 2015, Souad was awarded the best female service provider in the UAE.
Entretien avec le président du jury du Salon des Inventions de Genève M. David Taji-Farouki
10 May 2016
Interviewé par Swiss Arab Entrepreneurs (SAE), David Taji-Farouki, président du jury du Salon des Inventions de Genève, un amoureux des tableaux et objets artistiques, ce qui fait de son bureau un véritable mini musée, nous parle avec patience du Salon des inventions de Genève – dont la 44e édition a clos ses portes dimanche 17 avril 2016 sur un bilan de 66'000 visiteurs, et plus de 600 exposants présentant près de 1000 objets innovants – qui est le plus grand et le plus crédible selon Taji-Farouki. Chaque année il accueille plus de 50 pays, soit entre 700 et 800 inventions.
Selon Taji-Farouki, la participation au salon est ouverte à toute personne avec un brevet, elle ne peut présenter l’invention qu’une seule fois, à moins qu’il y ait un changement majeur. Le salon de Genève dispose des délégués dans les pays qui participent au salon. Quant à la présence des inventeurs en provenance des pays Arabes, selon Taji-Farouki cette année, il y a eu presque 30 participants, la majorité sont des Saoudiens, une participation plutôt maigre comparée aux années précédentes avec un nombre de participant qui frôlait un record entre 50 et 100 inventeurs rien que de l’Arabie Saoudite.
Sans doute, le premier obstacle pour participer au salon de Genève est le financement. Car réserver un stand au Salon des Inventions de Genève, engendre un coût entre 2000 et 2500 francs suisses, s’ajoutant à cela les frais du voyage et le séjour. D’ailleurs le Salon de Genève est un salon d’affaires qui favorise les rencontres entre les inventeurs et les investisseurs. La plus part des participants, en provenance des pays en développement, reçoivent le soutien logistique et financier des instituts scientifiques ou des ministères de l’éducation de leurs pays ou encore des organisations caritatives. Tandis qu’en Europe il n’est pas rare que les participants prennent en charge les frais de participation à ce genre d’évènements.
Taji-Farouki nous parle de son initiative de fonder en 2006 le Salon International de l’Inventions au Moyen-Orient (International Invention faire in the Middle East - IIFME) en collaboration avec M. Eyad Al Kharafi, Président d'honneur du «Kuwait Science Club» à l’époque.. Alors que pour le Salon de Genève la sélection des inventions se fait par un comité d’évaluation, « le juré », composé de 85 experts dans tous les domaines, sans plafonner le nombre des participants, la particularité du salon IIFME réside dans la participation quasiment gratuite, car il faut juste s’acquitter des frais d’inscription qui s’élèvent à 500 dollars. Mais le nombre des participants est limité à 150-180, et cela pour une bonne raison, car les participants font le concours pour accrocher des prix pour un budget total de 50 mille dollars, le premier prix s’élevant à 15 mille dollars. IIFME est ainsi le seul salon dans le monde à octroyer des prix monétaires aux inventeurs. Quant à la concurrence entre les deux salons ? pas de panique, car Genève tient le patronage du salon IIFME.
S’agissant du risque de l’espionnage industriel, pour y participer, il faut avoir un brevet pour éviter ce genre des problèmes. Mais attention au laps du temps car les brevets doivent être renouvelés, faute de quoi ils n’auront aucune validité.
Pour terminer, vis-à-vis de la commercialisation des inventions, qui est certes l’objectif final des exposants, Taji-Farouki nous donne un exemple d’un roumain qui est devenu riche suite à l’exposition de son invention au Salon de Genève, tout en rappelant qu’il y ait beaucoup d’exemples de produits dans notre vie quotidienne qui ne sont à la base qu’une invention présentée lors du Salon des Inventions de Genève, à titre d’exemple les brassards de sauvetage pour les enfants, le système de fermeture pour les chaussures. Le salon de Genève 2017 est encore friand de nombreuses inventions à venir. Mais pour les moins patients, la chance est toujours ouverte pour le Salon à Kuweit en novembre prochain.
Forts de leurs précédents succès, les Trophées du salon international des inventions de Genève reviennent cette année. Une occasion unique pour les innovateurs de faire valoir leur audace, leur inventivité, et leurs avancées technologiques. Les Trophées de l’Innovation visent à récompenser les produits, services et/ou concepts innovants dans tous les secteurs et à valoriser, les exposants aux performances et atouts remarquables.
Pour la 44e édition, les pays Arabes étaient au rendez-vous. Des inventeurs y ont assisté notamment des pays arabes de Golfe comme l'Arabie Saoudite, le Koweït, les EAU, Oman, mais aussi l'Egypte et l'Algérie. En effet, les Etats arabes du Golfe et l'Egypte participent régulièrement à travers des institutions nationales pour la recherche. Ils reflètent ainsi le visage peu connu du monde arabe.
Cette année a été marquée par la contribution de plusieurs inventeurs venant de plusieurs pays Arabes tel que l'Arabie Saoudite, les Emirats Arabes Unis, le Qatar, l’Egypte, l’Oman et l’Algérie.
Inventions (para-)médicales
A titre d’exemple nous trouvons dans ce salon deux inventions remarquables du Dr. Amani Shafik Awad de la Faculté de pharmacie et de Sattam lbin Abdul Aziz University (Arabie Saoudite). Le premier a présenté son innovation pour traiter le leishmaniose, une maladie répandue au Proche-Orient, connue sous le nom de « boutons de Jéricho » à travers un champignon, la seconde invention consiste à utiliser les feuilles de basilic dans le traitement de la colite ulcéreuse.
L’inventrice Amina Meaad de l’Egypte, a pu attirer le coup de foudre avec des nombreuses inventions. Meaad marque une présence pour la deuxième fois consécutive, avec deux inventions. La première constitue une solution pour un problème environnemental, car elle utilise le son de riz, brulé auparavant dans la nature, pour fabriquer du savon contenant des antibiotiques pour combattre les champignons dans les cheveux, en plus de sa qualité pour nettoyer la peau. Cette invention a remporté la médaille d'or du salon de Genève. La deuxième invention est le shampooing avec des ingrédients naturels pour lutter contre la perte de cheveux, cette invention a gagné la médaille de bronze.
Par ailleurs, l'inventeur Saoudien Mohab Mohammed Hindi, un étudiant de la Faculté de médecine de l'Université King Abdul Aziz (Arabie Saoudite), a inventé un réveil pour les patients atteints de diabète, qui mesurent la proportion de sucre sans devoir recourir à la piqûre de la peau ou de prélever un échantillon de sang.
En faveur de la protection de l’environnement
Les inventions au rapport avec la protection de l’environnement ont été nombreuses. L’invention de Mustafa Sawi, de la fondation « les jeunes de Sharjah (Sharjah Youth) » (Emirats Arabes Unis), a été très remarquable puisqu’elle concerne la réduction des émissions de gaz polluants dans les centrales électriques. Cette invention a remporté la médaille d’or du salon. Tandis qu’un groupe d'étudiants de la Faculté de génie (de l'Université King Abdul Aziz, Arabie Saoudite), a présenté une invention qui rend l'ascenseur plus intelligent, ce qui permet d'économiser du temps et de l'énergie par l’inclusion d’un système de reconnaissance de la place vide disponible dans l'ascenseur pour l’entrée des personnes supplémentaires. L’ascenseur ne s’arrête donc que lorsqu’il y a de la place pour faire entrer les gens.
Par ailleurs, l'inventeur Mohamed Abdel Fattah, un inventeur égyptien, a présenté une invention d’une grande envergure, car c’est un réservoir énorme de carburant qui offre une solution aux problèmes environnementaux car en plus du système qui lui permet de stocker et déplacer d’énormes quantités de pétrole brut (stockage et mouvement), il est très résistant au feu.
L'étudiant égyptien Ahmad Ayyash Muhammad (18 ans) fait partie des jeunes inventeurs pour ce salon. Sa contribution très brillante, qui fait réfléchir, permet de produire cinq fois l’électricité nécessaire pour faire fonctionner les locomotives ! Comment-il est possible ? Cette invention nous donne l’impression qu’elle viole le principe de la conservation de l'énergie, et c’est bien possible, en créant des champs magnétiques sur la voie ferrée lors de passages de trains composés de plusieurs wagons. L’enjeu de cette invention est national pour l’Egypte car elle exige une infrastructure à l’échelle nationale. Cette invention a remporté la médaille d'or.
Prévention des fraudes et accidents
De l’environnement à la prévention de risque d’accident ou d’incendie. Plusieurs inventions qatariennes étaient au rendez-vous, parmi lesquels l'inventeur Khalifa Hitmi qui a contribué par son invention à réduire la congestion et le temps d'attente aux feux de circulation, elle possède également une application importante pour la sécurité, un système d'alerte est immédiatement déclenché en cas du non-respect de feu rouge de la part de l'un des utilisateurs, de sorte à prévenir des accidents dans de tels cas.
Cette année n’a pas seulement montré le poids des femmes, mais aussi les jeunes. Deux inventeurs égyptiens, Mohammed Jamal Shauman (19 ans) et Ahmed Mohammed Abdel Tawab (18 ans) ont pu démontrer qu’il est possible de réduire les accidents de la circulation et les dommages provoqués par ceci à travers une structure externe de la voiture très résistante aux chocs, à l'électricité et à la chaleur, alors que jusqu’à présent les solutions proposées par les ingénieurs réagissent depuis l’intérieur des véhicules. Cette invention a remporté la médaille d'argent et un prix du président de département de l'énergie nucléaire en Malaisie.
Une autre invention féminine a été sur le stand Saoudien pour une inventrice, Nora Ali, qui lui a vallu le prix des sapeurs-pompiers de Genève, car cette invention est au cœur de la prévention de risque d’incendie, la poudre intégrée dans les tuyaux en plastique enveloppant les fils électriques des bâtiments, se libère lors d’un court-circuit déclenchant un incendie à l'intérieur du tube, ce qui permet d’éteindre le feu avant qu’il ne se propage dans le bâtiment.
Pour prévenir la fraude dans le secteur bancaire, l'inventeur Mohsen Hosein Al Sheikh, peut faire des échos, puisqu’il s’est attaqué à la problématique de falsification des chèques bancaires par son imprimante intelligente et transportable, qui se connecte facilement sur un Smartphone ou une tablette, qui a la capacité de reconvertir les chiffres numérique en texte. Cette invention est prévue d’être disponible sur le marché au cours des trois prochains mois.
La participation féminine pour cette année était au rendez-vous, toujours à la Faculté de génie, de l'Université King Abdul Aziz (Arabie Saoudite), des étudiantes ont réussi une solution géniale pour alimenter les feux de circulation dans les endroits éloignés, une spécificité saoudienne, où c’est difficile d’établir des réseaux électriques, l’énergie est produite par l’utilisateur même lorsque sa voiture approche un point d’intersection afin d’éviter d’entrer en collision avec les autres utilisateurs. Les feux ne fonctionnent que pour quelques secondes !
Enfin une solution économe pour mieux construire grâce à l'invention de Tarek Salah Al-Din Mustafa de l’Egypte, qui a pu jouer sur la forme géométrique des briques. Avec sa forme courbée il est donc possible de construire des plafonds sans la nécessité d’utiliser du béton armé, réduisant ainsi le poids sur les bases, cette invention a reçu la médaille d'or du salon.
La Suisse au Salon
La Suisse était aussi au rendez-vous pour ce salon. Pas seulement par ses inventeurs, mais aussi par la présence d’un stand de l’institut fédéral de la propriété, bien placé à côté de celui de l’organisation mondiale de la propriété intellectuelle. Ces sont des interlocuteurs incontournables pour les inventeurs en Suisse. Sur le plan scientifique la Suisse a été bien représentée au salon avec plusieurs inventions tel que le concept d’une télévision 3D basé seulement sur l’emplacement de la télévision. Car en intégrant la télé derrière un cadre donne l’impression de regarder à travers la fenêtre. Puis il était très facile de remarquer l’innovation «Diesoil» de recyclage de plastique qui inverse le processus de fabrication produisant ainsi des dérivés de pétrole. On découvre donc sur le stand volontairement jonché d’objets en plastique, et également des flacons remplis des dérivés de pétrole, une preuve qu’il est possible de recycler les déchets plastiques. Comment? Par un système calqué sur le principe de la distillation, une machine retransforme le plastique en produits pétroliers (kérosène, diesel, paraffine, etc.). Selon Laurent Helfrich, responsable commercial, leur objectif est d’éliminer toutes les décharges sauvages.
De l'invention à l'industrialisation
Il n’y a aucun doute que la jeunesse arabe a montré qu'elle est en mesure de surprendre avec des idées innovatrices, et que les jeunes ne sont pas seulement un élément de la révolution politique et sociale, mais aussi scientifique. Il est évident que le monde Arabe a besoin de marquer une présence dans des plateformes dédiées à l’innovation, une étape essentielle pour ouvrir la porte à la créativité constructive de la jeunesse dans un environnement de plus en plus concurrentiel. Mais il faut se rappeler également que les contributions à l’innovation ne devraient pas se limiter à des activités festives et la délivrance des prix, car le monde Arabe devrait passer à la prochaine étape et favoriser l’entreprenariat, afin de traduire ces inventions à des projets industriels et commerciaux, pour répondre aux besoins réels de la société et construire une base technologique et industrielle. Les jeunes sont invités à prendre part aux responsabilités et oser à devenir des entrepreneurs.
Saudi Arabia’s cabinet agreed to implement a broad reform plan known as Vision 2030, which is expected to involve sweeping change to diversify the economy beyond dependence on oil exports, state media reported on Monday.
The Kingdom announced sweeping economic reforms to reduce its dependence on oil and ensure long-term sustainable development, with plans for a massive $2 trillion sovereign fund to boost its global investment power.
In an exclusive interview with Al-Arabiya News Channel on Monday, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, second deputy premier and defense minister, said the implementation of the Vision 2030 plan would likely see the country operate without oil income by 2020, without sacrificing current infrastructure projects. The plan would also see the development of the country’s tourism industry, building the capacity of its military industries, reduced subsidies to save money, job creation initiatives, an education system revamp and a Green Card-style residency system for Arabs and Muslims.
He said the plan includes the setting up of a restructured Public Investment Fund (PIF) worth $2 trillion by including the proceeds of a Saudi Aramco initial public offering (IPO), other assets of $600 billion, and state-owned real estate and industrial assets estimated at $1 trillion. It would have more than 10 percent of global investment capacity, he said.
Prince Mohammed said the sale of 5 percent of oil giant Saudi Aramco would be the “biggest IPO in history.” Aramco would have a holding company with an elected board, with subsidiaries also sold through IPOs. “The 5 percent is from the parent company,” he said. Aramco is the world’s leading oil company, producing about 10 million barrels a day, or about 10 percent of global production.
Prince Mohammad said the partial IPO would help transform Saudi Arabia into an investment-driven economy and turn the Kingdom into a global player. “The Saudi addiction to oil has disrupted the development of many sectors in previous years,” he was quoted as saying.
On the highly-anticipated topic of the American-style Green Card for expatriates in the Kingdom, the prince said the scheme would be ready in five years. “The Green Card will allow Muslims and Arabs to live in Saudi Arabia for a long time and will be a source of revenue for the government,” he said. Prince Mohammed also revealed plans to develop the country’s tourism industry but within the framework of “our beliefs and values,” revitalizing culture and entertainment, and building an Islamic museum. “How can the Kingdom be the holiest place for Muslims and have no Islamic museum?”
The prince said the Aramco IPO is also aimed at ensuring greater transparency to boost the confidence of investors. “In this day and age, no country can afford to not be transparent. There are many benefits to the Aramco proposal, and the most important and major one is transparency.”
He said the lack of transparency of Aramco has “upset” many people. If Aramco is listed then it would have to announce its results quarterly and be open to scrutiny by financial and other institutions locally and abroad, he said.
Prince Mohammed said the government would cut subsidies but limit its impact on low and middle income earners. However, it would be applied to everyone, “including princes and government ministers. This is a promise.”
The deputy crown prince also confirmed in the interview the government plans to reduce Saudi unemployment from 11.6 percent to 7 percent.
On defense, he said it made no sense for Saudi Arabia to be the world’s third-largest spender on arms but with no manufacturing industry. There were plans underway to set up factories for this purpose by 2017, initially wholly owned by the government but later listed on the Saudi bourse.
Prince Mohammed said that the Kingdom was adopting Vision 2030 “regardless of the oil price,” in reference to prices plunging to a 12-year low of $32 a barrel in January. “The Vision doesn’t require high spending but restructuring.” It focuses on the Kingdom’s strengths, its religion and Arab heritage, ability and location, he said.
Asked about the proposed King Salman Bridge over the Red Sea, announced last week in an agreement with Egypt, Prince Mohammed said the crossing would link Europe and Asia, provide building and investment opportunities, and help move billions’ worth of cargo across the Red Sea.
According to reports, the plan also envisages increasing the participation of women in the workplace, which has been growing rapidly over the past five years, from 22 percent to 30 percent.
Summary:
- Saudi is to sell less than 5 per cent of oil giant Aramco in IPO: deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
- He expects the value of Aramco to exceed $2 trillion as the kingdom prepares to sell part of the company in what could be the world’s largest initial public offering. The valuation of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. hasn’t been completed.
- A new investment fund will turn the world’s top oil exporter into a global investment power, deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman said. The kingdom’s existing Public Investment Fund (PIF) had made returns of 30 billion riyals ($8bn) in 2015. Asked whether he thought the management of PIF would be too autocratic, he said there would be an elected board that would make investment decisions for PIF.
- “We plan to set up a $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund … part of its assets will come from the sale of a small part of Aramco," he said.
- The Saudi stock index recovered from early losses and was up 1.8 per cent after the reform was outlined.
- A “green card" system will be introduced within five years to allow resident expatriates in the kingdom to have more rights in order to improve its investment climate. Sweeping reforms, of which the proposed green card is one, will be implemented even if oil prices rise back above $70 a barrel, prince Mohammed said.
- Plans for a military industries holding company fully owned by government at first and offered in IPO by end of 2017.
- The reform plan will not require major spending but will involve restructuring, prince Mohammed said, adding that spending on infrastructure projects would continue. He said that the government would restructure the housing ministry to help more citizens buy homes, said subsidies should not go to the rich, and said he aimed to reduce unemployment among Saudi nationals to 7 per cent from 11.6 per cent.
Sources: Arabnews.com, thenational.ae
Like its neighbours, Qatar’s economy is feeling the pinch of lower oil prices. Known as the richest country in the world per capita, the small Arab state is set to post its first fiscal deficit in 15 years. But Qatar is much better off to weather the tough times. Its non-oil sector is growing at a rapid pace and so is its high-income population. Qatari nationals as well as the majority of expats living in the country continue to enjoy gigantic spending power, giving the service sector a bigger market to invest in and a much needed demand boost.
Qatar outlook at a glance, 2015-2017
Note: Real GDP in constant 2004 prices.
Source: Qatar Economic Outlook 2015-2017, Ministry of Planning, June, 2015.
The Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics said in its 2015 annual report that “real economic growth, despite lower oil prices, is expected to remain strong on the back of vigour in the non-hydrocarbon economy that is set to carry through to 2016 and 2017.” The ministry also estimated a deficit of 4.9% of GDP and said government spending “continues to move on a lower trajectory than in the recent past”. However, it expects Qatar’s current account to remain in surplus throughout 2017. The good news is that the economy is likely to remain healthy for the short term at least. The International Monetary Fund estimates Qatar’s GDP to grow by 6.4% in 2016, and though this was taken down to around 4% between now and 2019 by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Rating Services, experts say it should provide plenty of scope for the banking sector to grow
Despite lower hydrocarbon revenues, the government continues to invest heavily in a number of service-oriented industries, and remains committed to providing financial and logistical support to both local and foreign investors.
A variety of institutions heavily involved in Qatar’s diversification drive include Enterprise Qatar, the Qatar Foundation, the Supreme Council of Information and Communication Technology, Qatar Financial Centre and Qatar Development Bank.
Education, healthcare, the insurance and financial sectors as well as hospitality, property and construction are all bringing billions of dollars to the economy, with the World Cup acting as a magnet for investors from all corners of the globe. Switzerland, for example, which recently established a trade and investment promotion agency in Doha, has shown much eagerness to capitalise on an array of business opportunities Qatar has to offer. The Swiss agency known as OSEC, which changed its name to Switzerland Global Enterprise, signed a strategic deal with the Qatari Businessmen’s Association, an entity that enjoys great influence in the country’s business circles.
The Peninsula, a Qatari daily newspaper, reported recently that a free trade agreement to further boost trade and investment is expected in the near future, as the volume of trade between the two countries almost doubled for the period between 2010 and 2014 (from 558 Million SFr to 872 Million SFr).
On top of the government’s agenda for now is to make it this growth sustainable and available for future generations, while optimising the efficiency of its markets and diversifying the economy.
Swiss main exports/imports with Qatar 1985-2014 (Million CHF)
Source: Swiss customs data(In order to see the detailed data on exports and imports by commodity please click here)
“Mobilising and using the Qatari resources and abilities together with the Swiss know-how, experience and technology will, without doubt, boost the socio-economic development of the country,” said H.E. Sultan Rashid Al Khater, Under Secretary at the Ministry of Business and Trade. Growing tourist numbers as the wealthy Arab state becomes a much desired travel destination and plans to host the World Cup in 2022 as well as the less known World Athletic Championship in 2019 will require Qatar to provide some 60,000 hotel rooms. Currently, it only has around one fifth of that.
Education
To sustain and continue this growth, Qatar will need to develop a well-educated and highly-skilled workforce and to do that it needs a world class education. According to a recent report, the education sector in the country is set for rapid transformation in the coming years, with between eight to 12 new schools expected to be required every year in the run up to 2022. Demand for schools has increased at a compound growth rate of 6% primarily on the basis of population growth. Government schools comprise 48% of all schools in the country. However, the fastest growing segment is international schools, which as of the academic year 2013 made up 35% of the total number of schools. A persistent school shortage in Doha makes it among the most attractive markets for school developers globally. World renowned education provider, GEMS, which owns and operates over 70 schools in 12 countries, including Switzerland, is set to open a base in a new purpose-built campus in Doha. GEMS is one among many private English curriculum education companies operating in the region.
Finance
Data from Qatar National Bank shows that financial services are making the greatest contribution to the country’s non-hydrocarbon growth, accounting for almost a third of the total of 10.6 percent in 2014. It achieved similar growth in 2015, well ahead of other sectors such as construction, hospitality and manufacturing. From 2010 to 2014, banks in Qatar saw their assets surge by an average annual growth rate of 15.3%, according to Qatar National Bank, the country’s biggest lender. The government, however, will need to continue to invest across the board, from construction and property, to healthcare, education and tourism, to sustain economic growth and encourage foreign investment. Another important avenue for diversifying its income, is investing petrodollars in foreign assets, a strategy that has worked well in the past.
Construction
Qatar’s construction industry is faring much better than its neighbours’ like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who have suffered from severe project delays, massive job cuts and project cancelations. A recent report found that confidence in the Qatari market among leading construction companies at the end of last year was 19 percentage points higher than the year before. One of its famous construction projects is the $45 billion Lusail City, which has attracted volumes of sizeable investments from all over the world. Once completed in 2017, it is expected to house 200,000 residents as well as scores of hospitality, entertainment and retail developments. Perhaps another reason why construction activities in Qatar maintain healthy growth levels is well-performing property market. In contrast to Dubai, where buying a property would probably cost you half the price of what you’d pay a year ago, prices in Qatar have stayed steady, while demand has held up and in some cases increased.
Meanwhile, developers have been quick to respond to a market hungry for more retail options. A spike in demand has been largely spurred by a fast expanding population, which hit 2.46 million in November last year, and the consistent development of Doha’s residential and transportation infrastructure. The country’s population centre has 13 malls currently in operation and it is looking to more than double that by 2019, according to a recent report by the Oxford business Group. Mall of Qatar, one of the largest retail centres currently under construction, accounts for a $5.4 billion, the size of investment that would be needed to build a small industrial plant. But this is understandable given Qataris’ famous shopaholic inclinations. People’s love for brands have led luxury retailers to give the market a vote of full confidence when it comes to investing in an outlet or setting up local presence. “Qatar is the kind of market that can sustain the high-end segments,” says Sean Kelly, project developer at United Developers, which has a significant portfolio of investments in the country.
Qatar took the world by storm in 2010 as it became the wealthiest nation per capita, while its economy grew by an unprecedented 19.4%. Although its economy remains largely dominated by the public sector, the small Gulf Arab state is embracing more privatisation of state-controlled enterprises. It also provides significant support to more locally owned Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and encourages them to get involved in heavy and light industries, international partnerships and trade.
As one investment expert in the US said, “Qatar is clearly geared more to the institutional investor” or groups that pull their money like retirement or hedge funds. The country has made significant strides in easing its laws on foreign investment and simplifying business ownership in order to incentivise and attract foreign capital. For example, the number of restrictions in non-citizens owning land was taken down significantly with the view to spur real estate investment. Qatar also allows up to 100% of foreign ownership in health and power projects — with approval from the government, as well as agriculture and manufacturing.
Healthcare
Timely diagnosing and treatment of diseases across the MENA region is extremely problematic, with one mind bogging statistics pointing to as much as 40% of people aged between 21 and 79 who suffer from diabetes not being diagnosed on time and in some cases not being diagnosed at all. Many would agree that this is mainly due to a lack of expertise from across the countries, which is increasingly leading governments to seek qualified experts from abroad.
Qatar’s healthcare and insurance sectors would also require significant foreign expertise to keep up with the country’s rapid population growth, which according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics, has more than tripled since 2004. Meanwhile, the rising incidence of lifestyle-related diseases means the state represents the fastest-growing health care market in the GCC. The Oxford Business Group estimates the sector to be worth some $9 billion by 2018, about double the $4.6 billion seen in 2013, with the inpatient market pegged to hit $2.5 billion and the outpatient market expected to reach $6.6 billion. As the government looks to build one of the world’s best healthcare systems, scores of new state of the art hospitals will be required and more robust and efficient healthcare infrastructure will need to be built. In the 2014/15 budget, allocations to the sector increased by 12% year-on-year to 15.7 billion Qatari riyals ($4.3 billion), with the number of health care facilities set to more than double by 2022. Pharmaceutical giants have seen an increased amount of sales off the back of a regional healthcare market that is projected to grow to almost $70 billion in 2018, according to estimates from Alpen Capital. A significant contributor to this health expansion has been the introduction of mandatory health insurance in some of the region’s largest markets. Along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Qatar has also made health insurance compulsory for expats, with the rest of the GCC expected to follow suit and thus give rise to a fast expanding insurance market.
Qatar is aspiring to “sustainable economic prosperity” but the truth is it continues to grapple with setbacks ranging from a lack of entrepreneurial spirit among its own people and falling productivity levels across the private and public sectors alike to limitations due to the size of its own economy and damaging external forces like exchange rate appreciation, which makes its exports more costly and less competitive. Qatar’s domestic economy is too small to attract significant foreign investment focused on internal markets, proving futile as a training ground for local companies hoping to expand regionally or globally. In addition, due to its geographic location, Qatar is one of the most isolated states in the GCC which some believe is significantly hampering intra-regional trade and limiting investment.
For now, diversifying its economy and exploring new channels to bring in money to the country remains its most viable option.
Investing in downstream industries such as petrochemicals and metallurgy and developing their subsectors like fertilizers and even chemicals will play a crucial role in decarbonizing Qatar’s economy. On top of that, it would create more jobs for the youth and take advantage of cheap feedstock. But this is easier said than done. In order to fully realise its future ambitions, Qatar will first have to make up for the shortages of local labour. Historically, Western expats have been filling the gap. A more long-term solution would be to better engage its own people and encourage home-grown entrepreneurship. The government is warming up to the idea and as part of Qatar’s National Vision it pledges to provide support and training to the private sector which it sees playing “an essential role in achieving sustainable development”, and raise productivity levels across the entire economy. At the same time, it admits that more needs to be done to improve competitiveness and attract investment in what it calls “a dynamic and increasingly borderless international economy.”
But Qatar is not alone in its push for economic diversification. Many of the Gulf Arab states have the exact same objectives and have for years been pumping huge amounts of money into petrochemicals, air transport, logistics, real estate, knowledge services and finance, among other sectors. If Qatar wants to relive the glory of enviable growth and economic momentum, it needs to address head on the challenges at stake. From low demand for skills amid rising labour surplus and limited capabilities of discovery and innovation, to a weak private sector and low levels of entrepreneurship, the obstacles for growth – at least for now – continue to abound.
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شهدت الدورة 44 للمعرض الدولي للاختراعات في جنيف حضورا عربيا ملحوظا من دول عربية عدة كالمملكة العربية السعودية والكويت والامارات وعمان ومصر والجزائر.
والملاحظ أن دول الخليج العربي ومصر تشارك بانتظام بأجنحة لمؤسسات وطنية لدعم الاختراعات تجمع تحت سقفها نخبة من مخترعي البلد. وهي بذلك تقدم وجها مشرفا عن وجه يجهل الجمهور الكثير عنه وهو عالم الاختراعات في العالم العربي.
السعودية
وشهد هذا العام مساهمة لعدة مخترعين من المملكة العربية السعودية حيث تألقت الباحثة السعودية الدكتورة اماني شفيق عواد من كلية الصيدلة في جامعة سطام بن عبد العزيز حيث ساهمت باختراعين، الاول هو ابتكار لعلاج مرض اللشمينيا من خلال استخلاص مادة من احد انواع الفطر وهو مسجل في مركز البراءات الاوروبي في حين يتمثل الاختراع الثاني في استخدام ورق الريحان في علاج التهاب القولون التقرحي المنتشر بكثرة، وقد حصل على براءة اختراع من مكتب البراءات الامريكي.
كما شهد الجناح السعودي مشاركات اخرى حيث قام المخترع مهاب محمد هندي، وهو طالب في كلية الطب في جامعة الملك عبد العزيز، باختراع ساعة منبه لمرضى السكري، وهي تقوم بقياس نسبة السكر من غير وخز للجلد او اخذ عينة دم، وتعرض الساعة نسبة السكر في الدم بشل متواصل بحيث يتم تنبيه المريض والمسؤول عنه بشكل فوري عند ارتفاع او انخفاض نسبة السكر في الدم. كما قام مجموعة من الطالبات في كلية الهندسة باختراع مصعد ذكي يوفر الوقت والطاقة من خلال ترطيب جهاز يتعرف على الفراغ المتبقي في المصعد لدخول اشخاص اضافيين فلا يتوقف عن استدعاءه من خارج المصعد الا اذا كان الحيز المتوفر يتسع لاستقبال راكب اضافي. كما شهد المعرض اختراعا اخر لعدة طالبات من كلية الهندسة، ربما يعكس الخاصية السعودية، حيث يتخلص في نظام لتنظيم المرور في المناطق النائية حيث يصعب امدادها بشبكة الطاقة الكهربائية، من خلال اشارة مرورية عند التقاطعات يتم تزويدها بالطاقة الكهربائية من خلال الواح بها مجسات للحركة عند مرور السيارات مما يولد الطاقة الكهربائية اللازمة لتشغيل الاشارة المرورية لعدة ثوان ريثما تمر السيارة للحيلولة دون وقوع اصطدام مع سيارة اخرى عند التقاطع. كما تميز اختراع اخر للطالبة نورة علي المرشد والذي تمثل بمادة بودرة توضع على الاسلاك الكهربائية الممتدة داخل الانابيب البلاستيكية في المباني، فعند حدوث تماس كهربائي واندلاع حريق داخل السلك يتأثر الانبوب البلاستيكي بالحرارة ويذوب البلاستيك طارحا مادة البودرة على الاسلاك الكهربائية لإخماد الحريق قبل استفحاله.
الامارات
من جهة اخرى فاز المخترع الاماراتي مصطفى الصاوي، مؤسسة ناشئة الامارات (الشارقة)، بالميدالية الذهبية من المعرض مع مرتبة الشرف عن اختراعه الذي يتعلق بخفض انبعاثات الغازات الملوثة في محطات توليد الطاقة الكهربائية.
قطر
كان الحضور القطري ملحوظا في المعرض حيث شاركت قطر من خلال النادي العلمي القطري بعدة اختراعات، نذكر منها المخترع القطري هتمي خليفة الهتمي الذي ساهم باختراع يساهم في تقليل الازدحام ووقت الانتظار عند الاشارات المرورية مع تطبيق هام للسلامة من خلال نظام تحذيري في حال اجتياز الشارة الحمراء من قبل احد المستخدمين، بحيث تحول دون حدوث حوادث في مثل هذه الحالات. كما قدم المخترع محسن حين الشيخ اختراعا قد يحدث اصداءا في الوسط البنكي، حيث يتمثل في نظام لطباعة الشيكات البنكية بدلا من كتابتها باليد للحيلولة دون التلاعب او التزوير، وهو مزود بطابعة محمولة موصولة على هاتف ذكي مزود بنظام لتحويل الارقام الى نص مكتوب، حيث من المتوقع يتم انزال النظام الى السوق خلال الثلاثة اشهر القادمة. كما شهد الجناح القطري اختراع يتعلق بسترة مضادة للرصاص للمخترع حمد جاسم البحر وهي مكونة من مادة الكربون المستخلص من النخيل وتمتاز بالكفاءة والكلفة المنخفضة نسبيا، كما احتوى الجناح القطري على اختراع اخر لخوذة عسكرية لحرس الحدود مزودة بعين خلفية مع نظام تحذيري في حال وجود شخص او حيوان ما في الجوار.
مصر
كان للجناح المصري حضورا واضحا، حيث شاركت المخترعة امينة ميعاد للعام الثاني على التوالي باختراعين، الاول يتمثل في تحويل قشر الرز الى مادة الصابون بدلا من الاجراء الحالي الذي يتمثل في حرقه، حيث ان الصابون المصنوع من قشر الرز يحتوي على مضاد حيوي طبيعي يعمل على مكافحة الفطريات وتفتح البشرة وازالة الجلد الميت. وقد حصل هذا الاختراع على الميدالية الذهبية من معرض جنيف وتكريم من مؤسسة ناشئة الشارقة. اما الاختراع الثاني فيتمثل في شامبو من مكونات طبيعية يرش كرذاذ على الشعر يعمل على مكافحة تساقط الشعر والفطريات، وقد حصل على الميدالية البرونزية.
وشهد الجناح المصري اختراعا متميزا للمخترع محمد عشري محمد عبد الفتاح، وهو يتعلق بخزان وقود يقدم حلا للمشكلات البيئية كونه مقاوم للحريق والتسرب كما انه مزود بنظام لتخزين وتحريك كميات هائلة من خام النفط (storage and movement).
واشتمل الجناح ايضا على اختراع للمخترع المصري طارق صلاح الدين مصطفى وهو طوب بناء ذو شكل هندسي مقوس يستخدم لبناء السطوح دون الحاجة لاستخدام الاسمنت المسلح وهو ما يكسب البناء قوة ويقلل من الوزن، وقد حصل على الميدالية الذهبية.
وقد كان لافتا لهذا العام حضور الطاقات الشبابية، حيث شارك المخترعان محمد جمال شومان (19 عام) واحمد محمد عبد التواب (18 عاما) حيث توصلا الى هيكل خارجي للسيارات يعمل على تقليل حوادث المرور والاضرار كونه مقاوم للصدمات، كما انه مقاوم للكهرباء والحرارة. وقد حصد الاختراع ميدالية فضية وجائزة درع من رئيس قسم الطاقة النووية في ماليزيا.
اما الطالب احمد عياش محمد (18 عاما)، فقد تألق في اختراعه الفريد والمتمثل في توليد الكهرباء من حركة سير عربات مترو الانفاق، بحيث يمكن توليد طاقة كهربائية تعادل خمس اضعاف الطاقة المستخدمة لتشغيل القاطرات، وعند سؤاله عن مدى انسجام هذا الاختراع مع القانون الخاص بالطاقة اوضح بان الامر يتعلق بإنشاء مجال مغناطيسي في نقاط محددة عند مرور القاطرات وهو ما يفسر هذه الامكانية. وقد حصد الميدالية الذهبية. وللعلم فان هذا الاختراع يحتاج الى بنية تحتية وخطة على المستوى القومي.
من الاختراع الى الصناعة
لا شك بان الشباب العربي اثبت بانه قادر على الاتيان بكل ما هو جديد، وان الطاقات الابداعية في العالم العربي متوفرة في شتى المجالات. ان المشاركة العربية في مثل هذه التظاهرات العلمية العالمية لهو امر مهم يعد خطوة اساسية نحو فتح المجال للطاقات الشبابية والعلمية في بيئة تنافسية وصولا للنهوض بالمستوى العلمي والابداعي. الا ان المطلوب ان لا تتوقف هذه المساهمات عند حد المشاركة في مهرجانات علمية واستلام الجوائز التقديرية، وانما لا بد من الانتقال الى الخطة القادمة والاهم والتي تتمثل في ترجمة هذه الاختراعات الى مشروعات صناعية وتجارية، وهو امر ضروري لسد الحاجة المحلية والعالمية وبناء قاعدة تكنولوجية وصناعية في العالم العربي والنهوض بالاقتصاد، خاصة في ظل الطفرة التي يشهدها العالم العربي في دور القطاع الخاص في الحياة الاقتصادية وتوجه الشباب نحو انشاء المشروعات الخاصة الريادية.
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By Soukaina Rachidi
According to recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, the GDP of the six oil-reliant members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, U.A.E, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are projected to slow to 2.7% in 2016, down from 3.2% in 2015. The main cause for this slowed growth is the historically low oil prices, which have weakened the fiscal balances of Gulf’ oil-exporters and resulted in unprecedented budget deficits for the first time in 20 years.
With increased oil yields from Russia, Africa, the Caspian Sea and the re-introduction of Iran into the global oil market, the GCC has had to deal with an increasing number of competitors. However, this increase isn’t the only challenge facing the GCC. The growing interest in renewable energy has also resulted in a steady decline in the demand for oil. However, while oil prices are unlikely to rise anytime soon, The GCC’s substantial sovereign wealth funds and foreign reserves are sure to protect it from any economic shocks in the foreseeable future.
Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist at Indosuez Wealth Management, believes that low oil prices are presenting the GCC with a unique opportunity to introduce structural reforms and fiscal policies that will diversify its economies, increase investment and create more sustainable business opportunities for the region. Here are three new emerging industries that investors should consider in the GCC.
1. Halal Lifestyle Industry
A recent report published by the Economist Intelligence Unit predicted that the Gulf’s Halal food imports are projected to increase to 53.1 billion dollars by 2020 and by the end of the decade, the UAE’s annual Halal food imports alone are expected to reach an estimated 8.4 billion dollars. While the GCC has lagged in developing the Islamic economy in the past, these projections are changing the landscape of the region’s economy. The UAE is currently leading the charge, as it primes Dubai to become the future hub of Islamic banking, Halal food and lifestyle industries.
By leading the world in the standardization of halal accreditation and certification, Dubai hopes to attract new industry-specific manufacturing and services to the region. In addition to that, the UAE is also targeting the halal tourism market, which represents 11.6% of global tourism expenditure and is projected to be worth 238 billion dollars by 2019. With the rapidly growing global Muslim population and an emerging middle class, the GCC has the potential to generate great revenue serving the needs of this growing market segment.
2. Aviation Industry
The lack of other efficient modes of transportation in the GCC has played a big role in fueling the demand for better airlines, airports and aviation services in the region. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the Middle East is anticipated to be one of the fastest growing regions in the world in terms of passenger traffic until at least 2034, with an annual growth rate of 4.6% on average. Over the past couple of years, the GCC has implemented various progressive aviation policies to increase transparency and promote competitiveness in the sector to encourage further growth.
The fact that roughly 80% of the world's population lives within an eight-hour flight of the GCC has also presented a great advantage to the region’s aviation sector. While airlines like Qatar Airways, Etihad and Emirates lead the market in long-haul flights, smaller low-cost carriers like FlyDubai and Air Arabia are filling the gap in the short-haul market. The GCC’s clear geographic advantage, the rise in tourism, growing populations and the ready access to capital, fuel and space make the Gulf’s aviation industry a strong investment opportunity for investors seeking to capitalize on the privatization of airports and existing gaps in the domestic travel market.
3. Entrepreneurship Industry
While political turmoil and lower oil prices have adversely impacted many sectors in the region, the GCC’s start-up ecosystem continues to flourish. In fact, in 2015, the Dubai Department of Economic Development issued an estimated 22,025 trade licenses, which is almost double the number issued in 2009. Despite the additional regulatory challenges that entrepreneurs face in the GCC, such as restrictive visa regulations or the lack of bankruptcy laws, the region still remains an attractive hub for startups founders. Dubai Department of Economic Development has risen steadily during the past eight years, after a dip in 2009, when the global financial crisis hit the region. Last year, Dubai DED issued 22,025 trade licences, up from 11,743 in 2009.business category.The number of trade licences issued by Dubai Department of Economic Development has risen steadily during the past eight years, after a dip in 2009, when the global financial crisis hit the region. Last year, Dubai DED issued 22,025 trade licences, up from 11,743 in 2009.
According to Dany Farha, the Chief Executive of Dubai-based Beco Capital, the GCC’s tech startup sector has grown ten-fold in the past four years. The growth of the regional venture capital ecosystem and the falling demand for office space and the willingness of suppliers to negotiate prices has created the “perfect storm” for small businesses to grow and reduce overhead costs. Furthermore, the privatization of various public services across the GCC, has created a unique opportunity for investors to diversify their portfolios and help entrepreneurs provide more efficient and cost-effective services for GCC governments’ and consumers.
Par: Sami Ben mansour
Le 23 mars 2016, le prix du baril de pétrole était côté à moins de 40$ à la bourse des matières premières de New York. En l'espace de 18 mois, le cours de l’or noir est passé de 106 à 37$. Un effondrement spectaculaire qui a entraîné très vite par chute dangereuse du marché.
Le reflux de l’économie mondiale dû au ralentissement de la croissance chinoise ne saurait expliquer à lui seul la baisse brutale du baril du pétrole. Derrière cette dégringolade des cours, il y a un enjeu geoploitique. L’Arabie Saoudite : un acteur majeur du marché étant le premier producteur mondial et le détenteur des deuxièmes plus grosses réserves planétaires de brut.
Une baisse provoquée
Le ralentissement de l’économie mondiale engendre déjà une demande moindre en énergie, le pétrole en premier. Pour redresser le cours de ce dernier, il est de coutume que les plus grands producteurs, l’Arabie Saoudite en tête, baissent leur production afin de rééquilibrer le marché. Mais cette fois l’Arabie saoudite maintient ses niveaux de production.
La baisse du prix de pétole a des effets négatifs directs sur l’Iran et la Russie, deux pays riches en pétrole, les alliés du régime d’Al Assad en Syrie. D’autre part, les Etats-Unis, profitant d’un pétrole cher, ont investi massivement dans l’exploitation du gaz de schiste, accroissant leur production et ainsi leur autonomie énergétique. Pour les punir de cette audace qui menace son leadership pétrolier et protéger ses parts de marché, l’Arabie Saoudite contrôle le marché à la baisse entraînant la faillite de beaucoup de producteurs américains de gaz de schiste.
Des conséquences économiques et sociales visibles
La baisse de prix de petrole a entrainé une baisse de production du gaz de schiste aux Etats-Unis, tandis que les alliés d’Al Assad souffrent économiquement. Mais les conséquences commencent sérieusement à se faire ressentir au niveau du royaume.
L’Arabie saoudite, dépendante à 90% des exportations de brut, n’est certes pas ruinée, forte de ses 667 milliards d’euros de réservers en devises accumulées durant les années des vaches grasses. Mais son train de vie va changer de manière drastique.
Conséquences immédiates : le prix du pétrole à la pompe a doublé dans le royaume entrainant un vent de panique parmi les saoudiens et des files d’attentes devant les stations d’essence. Du jamais vu dans le royaume. Mais le train de mesures spectaculaires ne s’arrête pas là car l’Etat ne prendra plus en charge comme à l’accoutumée le logement qui sera beaucoup moins subventionné qu’avant. Et l’eau et l’électricité augmenteront de 70%… Enfin, le saoudien découvre la TVA, notion totalement inexistante jusque-là dans le royaume.
Sur le plan macroéconomique, le déficit budgétaire saoudien s’est creusé de manière abyssale à plus de 89 milliards d’euros. Mais le danger guette, car le Fond monétaire international a averti le royaume qu’il risque d’épuiser ses réserves en devises en cinq ans s’il ne réduit pas ses dépenses et ne diversifie pas son économie.
Réformes budgétaires et diversification économique
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(1) McKinsey Global Institute, «Saudi Arabia beyond Oil : the Investment and productivity transformation», Décembre 2015.
Les opinions exprimées dans cet exposé sont celles de l'auteur et ne reflètent pas nécessairement celles de la direction de la plateforme
الكاتب: سامي بن منصور
في 23 مارس 2016، كان سعر برميل النفط أقل من 40 $ في بورصة المواد الخام بنيويورك. ففي غضون 18 شهرا انحدر سعر الذهب الأسود من 106 الى 37 $. و سرعان ما تحول هذا الانخفاض الكبير إلى سقوط خطير.
ارتداد الاقتصاد العالمي بسبب التباطؤ في النمو الصيني لا يمكن أن يفسر وحده هذا الانخفاض الحاد في سعر برميل النفط. وراء هذا الانهيار للأسعار نجد عوامل جيوسياسية نتيجة الصراعات في المنطقة.
انخفاض مفتعل
تباطؤ الاقتصاد العالمي يولد بالفعل انخفاض الطلب على الطاقة، و أولها النّفط. لتصويب مسار الأسعار، من المعتاد أن أكبر المنتجين و أولهم المملكة العربية السعودية يضغطون في اتجاه تخفيض الإنتاج من أجل إعادة التوازن إلى السوق. لكن في هذه المرة سارت الامور على غير المعتاد و حافظت المملكة العربية السعودية على مستويات إنتاجها.
دعونا نقوم بتحليل في الاقتصاد الجيوسياسي. ان انخفاض اسعار النفط يشكل ضربة لإيران وروسيا وهما من حلفاء نظام الأسد في سوريا، حيث انهما من البلدان الغنية بالنفط. من ناحية أخرى، فإن الولايات المتحدة الامريكية استفادت كثيرا من ارتفاع أسعار النفط لدرجة انها استثمرت بكثافة في استغلال الغاز الصخري لزيادة إنتاجها من النفط، و تحقيق استقلالها في قطاع الطاقة. هذه الجرأة الامريكية تهديد صارخ للريادة السعودية في السوق النفطية مما دفع المملكة للسيطرة على السوق في اتجاه الهبوط للحفاظ على حصتها التجارية و هو مما تسبب في إفلاس العديد من المنتجين الأمريكيين للغاز الصخري.
عواقب اجتماعية و اقتصادية حقيقية للهبوط الحاد في اسعار النفط
ان الانخفاض الحاد الذي شهدته اسعار النفط ادى الى نتائج مباشرة على الولايات المتحدة التي خفضت إنتاجها، كما ان كل من ايران و روسيا عرفتا صعوبات مالية ضخمة جراء هبوط السوق. ومما لا شك فيه بان عواقب انخفاض اسعار النفط هذه بدت جليا في الحياة اليومية في المملكة.
المملكة العربية السعودية التي تعتمد بنسبة 90٪ على صادرات النفط الخام هي بالتأكيد ليست في حالة دمار اقتصادي بعد انزلاق أسعار النفط، نظرا لوجود احتياطي للصرف بالعملة الصعبة يقدر بـ 667 مليار يورو تراكمت خلال سنوات الرخاء الاقتصادي. ولكن أسلوب حياة المملكة سيتغير بشكل جذري.
فقد كانت لهبوط السوق النفطية نتائج فورية. فسعر النفط في محطات البنزين قد تضاعف في المملكة مما تسبب في حالة من الذعر لدى السعوديين و تشكيل طوابير ضخمة امام محطات البنزين و هو شيء لم يسبق له مثيل في المملكة. ولكن لن تتوقف التبعات عند هذا الحد في المملكة، اذ ان الدولة لن تتحمل مصاريف دعم الإسكان كالمعتاد و قررت ايضا أن تقلل بكثير من مدى الدعم لامدادات الماء والكهرباء، مما ادى لزيادة التكلفة للمستهلك بنسبة 70٪. و اخيرا يكتشف السعوديون ضريبة القيمة المضافة التي لم يكن لها وجود البتة في المملكة.
على الصعيد الاقتصادي العام، اتسع العجز في الميزانية السعودية الى حد مروع و قدر بأكثر من 89 مليار يورو. ولكن الخطر الأكبر، حسب تحذيرات صندوق النقد الدولي هو استنفاد احتياطيات العملة الصعبة في غضون الخمس سنوات القادمة ان لم تخفض المملكة من وتيرة الإنفاق العام و تتخذ قرارات في اتجاه تنويع اقتصادها.
إصلاحات مالية و تنويع الاقتصاد
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(1) معهد ماكينزي العالمي، "المملكة العربية السعودية بعد النفط: التحول في الاستثمار والإنتاجية"، ديسمبر 2015.
الاراء الواردة في هذا المقال تعبر عن راي الكاتب ولا تعبر بالضرورة عن راي ادارة الموقع
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud announced in an interview with Bloomberg, that Saudi Arabia could introduce a system for its millions of expatriates that would be similar to the Green Card system in the US. He added that would help the kingdom generate new revenues for the national economy.
No details were given by Prince Mohammad, but with around nine million foreigners living in the vast kingdom, making up one third of the total population, the system would be a source for the country as it seeks to implement an ambitious package of new reforms and measures that will considerably improve its non-oil revenues and “raise at least an extra $100 billion a year by 2020, more than tripling non-oil income and balancing the budget.”
The emulation of the American Green Card system would be alongside more steps to restructure subsidies and the imposition of a value-added tax and a levy on energy and sugary drinks as well as luxury items, the deputy crown prince reportedly said.
Most of the foreigners in Saudi Arabia and fellow Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries – Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirate – are Asians, mainly unskilled workers in the booming building and service sectors.
In his interview, Prince Mohammad expressed optimism the new measures would reinforce the government’s drive to reduce reliance on oil and to boost non-oil revenues.
With the dramatic slump of oil prices, the GCC countries have been looking at viable options to generate non-oil sources and reduce threats to fiscal stability and sustainability.
Experts believe that hydrocarbon exports represent more than 80 per cent of the total revenue in the GCC countries where taxation is almost absent.
The main non-oil revenue base in the GCC states currently includes customs duties and fees and charges.
Bahrain, the first GCC country to discover oil in 1932, has been leading the way in the diversification of non-oil resources.
Source: Gulf news