Par Ayman Abualkhair

(English)

Nous vivons une période très spéciale, étant donné que l'épidémie de COVID-19 a atteint 177 pays et régions et qu'elle se propage dans le monde à un rythme imprévisible.

Cette crise a révélé notre faiblesse en tant qu'êtres humains, les déséquilibres qui existent dans de nombreux domaines de notre vie et la nécessité de revoir sérieusement notre façon de vivre. Elle montre plus particulièrement l'invalidité du principe «chacun pour soi», qui n'entraîne le bien-être de personne.

Cette crise montre l'unité du destin de l'humanité et de la fraternité humaine d'une manière sans précédent. Le risque auquel est confronté un individu ou une communauté peut toucher tout le monde, quels que soient les lieux, les ethnies ou les affiliations nationales et religieuses.

Le coronavirus a complètement changé notre mode de vie, ce n'est plus comme avant: files d'attente pour les courses, plus de rassemblements à l'école, plus d'enfants qui jouent dans la cour de récré, plus de réunions au travail, plus de célébrations de masse, plus de contact physique avec des amis ou même avec des proches... Le coronavirus a interdit toutes sortes de rassemblements humains!. Chacun doit craindre pour sa propre personne, nous vivons des moments difficiles. Mais cette pandémie offre également à chacun la possibilité de réfléchir profondément à sa vie, à ce qu'il a fait et à ce qu'il devrait faire aujourd'hui et demain. La vraie question qui s’impose: pourquoi nous ne sommes pas préparés à ce virus pandémique, alors que nous avons accumulé des connaissances scientifiques sans précédent dans de nombreux domaines?!. Bill Gates a déclaré en 2015, lors d'une conférence TEDX, que le véritable danger pour l'homme n'est pas une bombe atomique mais plutôt un virus! Il n’y a pas de doute, nous devons investir davantage de ressources dans la protection de la santé et le bien-être de l'être humain.

Les conséquences catastrophiques de coronavirus sur l’économie mondiale nécessitent des actions immédiates de la part des décideurs du monde entier, pour protéger les économies locales, principalement les PME, contre l'effondrement.

J'espère que cette crise mondiale sera un catalyseur pour un travail collectif afin de réaliser un avenir meilleur pour tous.

Restez en sécurité, restez à la maison!

By Ayman Abualkhair

(Francais)

We are experiencing very special times, given the fact that the COVID-19 outbreak has reached 177 countries and regions and its spreading all over the world at an unpredictable pace.

This crisis has revealed our weakness as human beings, the imbalances that exist in many areas of our life, and the need to make serious reviews of our way to live. It shows more particularly the invalidity of the principle “every man for himself” should not lead to the well-being for anyone.

This crisis shows the unity of mankind's destiny and human brotherhood in an unprecedented way. The risk facing an individual or a community can affect everyone regardless of places, ethnicities or national and religious affiliations.

Coronavirus has completely changed our way of life, it is no longer as before: shopping queues, no more gatherings at school, there are no more children who play at the playgrounds, no more meetings at work, no more mass celebrations, no more physical contact with friends or even with relatives ... Coronavirus has banned all kinds of humans gatherings!. Everyone must fear for his own person, we are living hard times. But this pandemic disease also offers the opportunity for everyone to think deeply about his/her life, what he/she did and what he/she should do today and tomorrow. Above all, we must ask ourselves, why we are not prepared for such pandemic virus, when we have accumulated unprecedented scientific knowledge in many fields?!. Bill Gates said in 2015, during a TEDX conference, that the real danger to humans is not an atomic bomb but rather a virus! It is without doubt that we have to invest more resources into health protection and the well-being of human being.

The catastrophic consequences of Coronavirus on the world economy require immediate actions from decision-makers around the world, to protect the local economies, mainly SMEs, from collapsing.

I hope this worldwide crisis will be a catalyzer to a collective work in order to achieve a better future for everybody.

Stay safe, stay home!

More than three months on since the emergence of the coronavirus, talking about the high demand for products of the digital economy is no longer a predictive matter, but rather a reality. Since the first half of February, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has displayed huge gains.

It’s not only Chinese companies active in the digital economy who have made gains, but also the shares of digital companies situated around the world. All of this is quietly sneaking under the radar of global news outlets who favor darker news. Those unhelpful bulletins initiate a sense of "panic" that limits the ability of startup owners and small businesses to think about the possibility of adapting and exploiting opportunities presented by these temporary conditions.

Nationwide lockdowns have led to the necessity of searching for alternative services that can be provided through smart phone applications and online platforms. Economists have tried to explain away the gains of digital companies, as a result of these new realities. However, since the coronavirus pandemic is not the end of the world, the emergency situation will soon disappear, just as is the case in China. Life in the Chinese province of Hubei (which was the initial epicenter of the spread of the coronavirus pandemic) is returning to normal, so does this mean that the markets will later suffer a correction within a few months, at the least, within a year? As far as equipment and medical clothing companies are concerned, the most likely hypothesis is that demand for their products will decrease with the decline of the virus spread. As for digital companies, it is likely that they will continue to grow. This hypothesis can be adopted for the following three reasons:

First: the growth of unconventional services via Internet

During the last few months, a group of online services that did not exist before and others that were less common in lower-demand markets for digital services appeared. One such service is provided by Peloton for home training bicycles, which has the advantage of communicating with other trainees via the internet. Demand for this service has increased by more than 50% during a record period, as well as the group viewing service launched by Netflix as an alternative to the cinemas that have closed their doors. We’ve also noticed a huge growth in telemedicine services. In this regard, it is expected that coronavirus will push people towards digitization at a rapid pace, which will lead to a shift in the health sector environment to become more digitized. Telehealth in a number of countries, especially Western ones, may not be new. The United States, for example, is already advanced in the process of digital transformation in the field of healthcare. But what’s changed is the speed and comprehensiveness of this transformation. The concept of digital health care is now spreading to new markets, such as across the Arab peninsula where telehealth is still an unconventional service.

Second: Investing in digital transformation

Despite the digital transformation underway at many companies around the world, the vast majority of companies still rely on the traditional work environment which lacks the flexibility to continue working under the current circumstances. This has forced the companies to accelerate their process of digital transformation, such as transferring the work of their employees to homes, the adoption of cloud computing technology, remote meeting technologies, the adoption of electronic stores and digital marketing, and many other digital transformation measures. Of course those services are not free of charge, and it requires companies to bear the brunt of those costs. Universities in Australia provide a perfect example of this. Many universities that receive international students from China have been forced to equip their facilities with distance education programs for international students who have been forced by ongoing circumstances to return to their countries. By making this rapid investment in digital transformation – after the cessation of the coronavirus pandemic – companies cannot simply abandon those investments. They will continue to use them, which is also another reason why digital products will continue to grow in the future.

Third: The experience of changing the work environment and consumption

The experience factor is related to the previous two factors, as companies now discovering the benefits of the digital business environment will continue to develop their digital business model and abandon many traditional business methods. As for consumption, the change is manifested by changing consumer behavior. Millions of consumers did not have any previous experience with the products of digital companies, such as learning, telemedicine, delivery services, and electronic products. The fact that consumers have now experienced consumption through the internet will enable digital companies to enhance their customer base. "The economy of quarantine," (as it is called in China) will develop new consumer habits, as people who have to the opportunity to experience digital services today may become permanent customers in the future.

In spite of the pessimistic news about slowing global growth, the Chinese experience so far shows more positive signs. After the COVID-19 pandemic receded in China, shops are witnessing an increase in their sales volumes above levels recorded in the same period last year. This is an early indicator of the possibility of markets auto-correcting in the period immediately following the end of the health emergency. As the Chinese experience indicates, companies that are now adapting their businesses through digital transformation will achieve future gains, by exploiting the “pent up demand” caused by the period spend under lockdown conditions.

Coronavirus! Yes, it's a serious situation, and yes, it deserves your vigilance and attention.

But the constant spring of information, precautions and warnings, whether it's straight from the CDC or some recirculated, dubiously-sourced post on Facebook, can take a real toll on your mental health.

When does caution become overreaction? When does staying informed cross the line into, well, too much information?

The good news is, there is a happy medium between willfully ignoring the biggest story in the world right now, and going into a full-on panic.

Here are some tips. Think of it like hand-washing and social distancing, but for your brain.

Pare down your sources of information

"There is a ton of information out there. The challenge is trying to determine which information is accurate." says Lynn Bufka, Associate Executive Director for Research and Policy at the American Psychological Association. She suggests taking control of your intake through the following steps:

• Find a few sources you trust and stick with them. Choose one national or international source like the CDC, and another local nor national source so you can know what's going on in your community.
• Limit the frequency of your updates.Things may be changing rapidly, but that doesn't mean you need to hang on every update. Think of it this way: If there is a tornado coming your way, you need information as soon as possible. The coronavirus is not a tornado. This may mean disabling constant notifications from news sites or social media.
• Know when to walk away. "Try to get used to not knowing every little thing, and feeling okay with uncertainty," says Bufka.
• She recommends getting your phone off your person so you're not tempted to check it. Bufka says she leaves her phone on a charging station when she gets home so it's not constantly with her, beckoning with new information.
• Practice social media self discipline.No, it's not easy to limit time on social media.
• But chances are, the churn of information and commentary you get from friends and acquaintances on your Facebook feed is more incessant than actual updates from news or health organizations. Bufka recommends uninstalling social media apps so it's harder to get to the content, or using tools to limit your aimless scrolling.

Name your fears

A pandemic is a rather abstract villain, so it may help to sit down and really consider what specific threats worry you. Do you think you will catch the coronavirus and die? "The fear of death taps into one of our core existential fears," says Bufka. "But you have to think about what your fear is, and how realistic it is." Consider your personal risk and how likely it is that you will actually come in contact with the virus.

And, even if your greatest fear is realized and you or someone you love does fall ill, you may not have really thought about what comes next. Yes, you may get it. Yes, you may need treatment. But in all likelihood, hope is still not lost. "We tend to overestimate the likelihood of something happening, and we tend to underestimate our capacity to deal with it," Bufka says.

Of course, you could have other, more practical fears. "Some people may worry about what would happen if they were moved into self quarantine, or if they're not able to work. They're wondering if they would have access to groceries or childcare," says Bufka. "Again, people have greater abilities to manage hardships than they think they do. Think about a plan. Consider options if you can't telework. Do you have savings? Do you have support?" Being prepared for your fears will help keep them in scale.

Think outside yourself

Since action can allay our anxieties, you may want to also consider what you can do to help others who may be more affected by the outbreak than you. Service workers, medical workers, hourly workers and people in the restaurant or entertainment industries may have their livelihoods paralyzed or have to put themselves in disproportionate danger. "It will be important for us as communities to think about how to support these individuals whose lives are going to be disrupted," Bufka says. "How can we even this burden and support those who have less options?"

After all, most of the precautions put in place to help stall the spread of the virus aren't just for you, as an individual. They're intended to keep entire communities and vulnerable demographics safe. Doing the same with your own time and care can empower you to see the real effects of the situation, rather than your abstract fears.

Seek support, but do it wisely

People are going to talk. But if you want to run to a friend to discuss the latest outbreak cluster or your family's contingency plans, try not to create an echo chamber. "If you are overwhelmed, don't necessarily go to someone who has a similar level of fear," Bufka says. "Seek out someone who is handling it differently, who can check you on your anxiety and provide some advice."

If you can't seem to get a handle on your thoughts, professional help can be an option. "It doesn't need to be a long-term thing," Bufka says. "It means you can get some guidance for this specific situation."

Pay attention to your basic needs

In short, don't get so wrapped up in thinking about the coronavirus that you forget the essential, healthy practices that affect your wellbeing every day. "In times of stress, we tend to minimize the importance of our foundation when we really should be paying more attention to it," Bufka says. Make sure you are:

• Getting adequate sleep
• Keeping up with proper nutrition
• Getting outside as much a possible
• Engaging in regular physical activity

Practicing mindfulness, meditation, yoga or other forms of self care can also help center you in routines and awareness, and keep your mind from wandering into the dark and sometimes irrational unknown.

Don't chastise yourself for worrying

Finally, don't let guilt be your anxiety's unwelcome companion. You are allowed to worry or feel bad. When discussing how to talk to children about the coronavirus, health experts told CNN people should acknowledge a child's fear and let them know their feelings are valid. Surely, you can afford yourself the same compassion. The key is to work toward understanding and contextualizing your fears so they don't keep you from living your healthiest life.

source: cnn

الآثار الجانبية للفيروس: فرصة مراجعة الأولويات في خضم الجنون المعاصر، نشارك نصًا جميلًا بقلم الدكتور رفائلي موريلي (Raffaele Morelli)، الطبيب النفسي والرئيس المؤسس لمعهد الطب النفسي الجسدي في رزا (Riza) (ايطاليا).

"أعتقد أن الكون لديه طريقته في إعادة التوازن بين الأشياء وقوانينها، عندما تصبح هذه مزعزعة للغاية. اللحظة التي نعيش فيها، مليئة بالشذوذ والمفارقات، مما يجعلنا نفكر ...

في هذه المرحلة التي وصل فيها تغير المناخ، الناجم عن الكوارث البيئية، إلى مستويات مثيرة للقلق. اصبحث الصين أولا، ثم العديد من الدول الأخرى، مضطرة لتطبيق الحظر. الاقتصاد ينهار، لكن التلوث يتناقص بشكل كبير.

الهواء يتحسن. نستخدم القناع، لكننا نتنفس...

في لحظة تاريخية، عندما يتم إعادة احياء بعض الإيديولوجيات والسياسات التمييزية في جميع أنحاء العالم، مع التذكير بقوة بماضي وضيع، يصل فيروس، مما يجعلنا عرضة، بين ليلة وضحاها، لنصبح نحن أيضًا من يعاني من التمييز، نصبح نحن المميزون، المعزولون، أولئك الذين يتم حظرهم عند الحدود والذين يجلبون الأمراض. هكذا دون اي ذنب. حتى لو كنا من البيض، الغربيين، ونسافر في الدرجة الأولى (عقدة الرجل الأبيض القوي)

في مجتمع قائم على الإنتاجية والاستهلاك، حيث نعمل جميعًا لمدة 14 ساعة في اليوم بعد أن يكون من غير الواضح لماذا، ناهيك عن يومي السبت أو الأحد، بدون مزيد من فترات الراحة في البرنامج.

فجأة، يتوقف كل شيء. ويتوجب لزوم المنزل لأيام وأيام، لنشرع في حساب الوقت الذي فقدنا قيمته، بمجرد أن لم يعد من الممكن قياسه بمقدار المال أو الربح. والسؤال: هل نعرف فعلا ماذا نفعل به؟

في الوقت الذي غالبًا ما يتم فيه تفويض تعليم أطفالنا، بحكم الظروف، إلى شخصيات ومؤسسات مختلفة، يغلق الفيروس المدارس ويجبرنا على إيجاد حلول بديلة، بحيث يتم لم شمل الأمهات والآباء مع أطفالهم.

إنه يجبرنا على إعادة بناء "أسرة".

في ظل بيئة يتم فيها تشكيل العلاقات والتواصل والتلاحم الاجتماعي بشكل أساسي في وسط افتراضي من خلال الشبكات الاجتماعية، مما يمنحنا وهم القرب، يسلب الفيروس القرب الحقيقي فعلًا: لا يجب أن يلمس أحد أحدأ، لا تقبيل، لا عناق، مع الحفاظ على مسافة، فهي علاقة باردة تفتقد الى الاتصال.

منذ متى اتخذنا هذه الطرق في السلام ومعناها أمرا مسلما به؟

في المناخ الاجتماعي حيث أصبح التفكير في نفسك هو القاعدة، يرسل لنا الفيروس رسالة واضحة: الطريقة الوحيدة للخروج منه هي المعاملة بالمثل، والشعور بالانتماء، والمجتمع، والشعور بكوننا جزء من شيء أكبر يحتاج إلى رعاية ويمكن أن يهتم بنا.

المسؤولية المشتركة، الشعور بأن أفعالنا لا تحدد فقط مصيرنا، ولكن مصير الآخرين، جميع من حولنا. وأننا نعتمد عليهم.

لذا إذا أوقفنا "البحث عن المذنب"، لنسأل أنفسنا عن الخطأ ولماذا حدث كل هذا، ولنسأل أنفسنا بدلاً من ذلك عن ما يمكننا تعلمه، أعتقد أننا جميعًا لدينا الكثير لنفكر به وما نعمله.

لأنه مع الكون وقوانينه، من الواضح أن لدينا دينًا مفرطًا.

إنه يذكرنا بها بثمن باهظ، من خلال فيروس.

ترجمة عن الفرنسية

https://www.vh.ma/actualite-news-express-maroc/news/lamour-temps-corona/

A recent ii poll shows that more active investors are buying than they were at the end of February.

interactive investor coronavirus poll: More armchair investors go shopping – but many are still waiting for further falls

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to send global markets South, a poll of 2,295 interactive investor customers between 11 - 16 March 2020 shows that more active investors are buying than they were at the end of February.

This second wave of investor research follows on from a wave 1 poll of 2,337 investors between 28 February – 2 March 2020, when market jitters were taking hold.

The most recent wave 2 survey shows that whilst many investors are still doing nothing amid Covid-19 concerns, this is down 6 percentage points (from 53% to 47%) two weeks ago. Instead, more investors are starting to take the plunge and buy – some 43% of investors said they are increasing their stock market exposure - up 8 percentage points from the last survey (35%).

However, many investors are all too aware that the market could sink lower. Some 19% of investors think the FTSE 100 becomes a buy if it heads down to 4,500, 9% think 4,000 and 8% think even lower. 

There has been little change in the proportion of investors saying they have deliberately increased their cash (8% vs 10% two weeks ago), while those moving into gold or bond funds remains at 1% respectively. 

Those who are still investing after market falls are tending to favour shares (55%, up from 49% in wave 1), followed by investment trusts (20%, down from 26% in wave 1). Some 11% of investors are looking at active funds, and 7% passive funds, and 8% are looking at ETFs.

The UK was the most favoured region for those increasing their stock market exposure (70%), followed by the US (15%) and this was very similar to the wave one research.

Rebecca O’Keeffe, Head of Investment, interactive investor, says: “History suggests that the best time to buy is when the market is fearful – and the market is firmly in panic mode now. Many of us can look back and wish that we had held off buying, but it is nigh on impossible to call the bottom of a market. 

“Most global markets were at or close to record levels before the start of the sell off, with some (such as the US) arguably at stretched valuation levels, so there was always plenty of potential downside in the event of a negative shock.  Most of us have (mercifully) not experienced an event such as Covid-19 in our lifetimes so there is a huge element of uncertainty still around.  

“Selling now would crystallise losses for many investors.

 Yes, it could still get much worse, but history suggests that, if you have a reasonable time horizon for your investments, then it is usually better to be buying during these periods of extreme fear and risk aversion than it is to be selling. 

“And you also have to think about dividends and total returns – something that investors often forget in times of pronounced market stress.

The FTSE 100 may be back at levels not seen since 2010, but it has paid out high levels of dividends since then and while there may be some companies that are forced to cut their dividends over the coming months, the likelihood is that dividends will still continue to be paid at a reasonable rate.”

source: ii.co

Uncertainty has powered the incredible roller coaster ride in stock prices these past weeks and the remarkable (as well as historic) drop in bond yields.  Don’t expect that to go away anytime soon.  But do keep in mind legendary investor Ben Graham's advice: “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” 

Translation: During market routs like the one happening now consider adding to your investment portfolio.

Graham’s student, Warren Buffett famously said, “Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases.” Translation: Now might be a good time to put some cash to work or increase your contribution to your 401(k).

My tune will rarely change on this subject. Corrections, even bear markets, create opportunities for patient investors.  According to J.P. Morgan’s 2020 Guide to Retirement, from Jan. 3, 2000, to Dec. 31, 2019, $10,000 invested in the Standard & Poor's 500 index grew to $32,421 for an annualized total return of 6.06%. By simply missing the ten best days, that same $10,000 investment grew by half as much, to $16,180 for an annualized return of 2.44%. Ouch.

Can cash carry coronavirus? World Health Organization says use digital payments 

In recent columns, we discussed how to prepare your 401(k) for a downturn and talked about sound investing principles in the face of violent sell-offs. Stock prices may still face selling pressure as the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. rise. So it is still a good time to review a few facts.

What's really moving the market

• In the near term, no one has any idea what is moving stock prices. If you've been glued to the financial news networks you might be struck, as I have been, by how many pundits can tell you with certainty why stocks are trading as they are at any moment. Yet we know that in the short-term stock prices are influenced by computer-driven buy and sell programs and institutional money which moves in and out with lightning speed. Short-term moves then reflect money flows rather than fundamentals. 
  
  

See beyond the moment

• The underlying fundamentals of a company will eventually matter again. Take tech bellwether Microsoft. The stock peaked on February 10th at $188.70. After warning on February 26th that sales in the PC unit — about 35% of total sales — will come in below expectations, the stock has been hopping around like a lotto ball on Powerball jackpot night. The long-term fundamentals of the company will likely still delight investors for years and when the focus returns to fundamentals the stock price will trade accordingly.  Buffett once said: “…when a great company gets into temporary trouble…we want to buy them when they’re on the operating table.“ Consider that as you review your investments this weekend. 
  
  

Don't get sucked into the panic

• Human nature never changes. Panic begets panic.  The Dutch tulip bulb bubble in the 1600s, one of the most famous bubbles of all time, demonstrates very clearly what rampant speculation wrought. At the height of the mania, rare tulip bulbs traded for multiples of the average person’s annual salary. Remain cool. And rational.  
  
  

Think about your mix

• Diversification is always smart. I can’t add much on this topic, except to say—you should follow a prudent diversification strategy that aligns with your appetite for risk. Stocks may be down double- digits but bonds are up.  That is the point of diversification. 
  
  

Keep cash to the side

• Keeping your powder dry is for times like these. Cash on the sidelines comes in handy when stocks decline. Consider adding cash to your stock holdings and if your bond holdings have appreciated above your target, trim those back and add to stocks to ensure your allocation reflects your goal.  Graham and Buffett would be proud.  
  

source: usatoday