In July 2021, Burj Khalifa was covered in red with the word “SVWL” in the middle, announcing that the Egyptian mass transit company Swvl had become “the first unicorn company* in the Middle East with a market value of $1.5 billion to be listed on the NASDAQ New York Stock Exchange.” This is how Dubai celebrated the city-based company in 2019.

It did not take long for the wave of celebration of the Swvl company to turn into heartbreak and regret. Less than 6 months after the start of trading its shares on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, the Swvl share price collapsed, losing about 95% of its value in September 2022. The downward journey of its share continued, bringing the share price in 2023 to about 20 cents, compared to $10 at the start of trading in March 2022. The market value of the company decreased from more than $1.5 billion to about $9 million only, so the company lost about 99% of its value after about twenty months of its listing on Nasdaq. How did Swvl descend from the pinnacle of success to the specter of bankruptcy? And what scenarios are waiting for the company?

In less than a year, Swvl succeeded in attracting financing amounting to about $9 million, starting with financing of $500,000 from “Careem” passenger transportation company, which was later acquired by “Uber”, and in 2018 it obtained financing of $8.5 million from a Series A funding round, and in the same year it succeeded in obtaining an undisclosed Series B funding round, estimated at between $20 and $30 million at the time, making Swvl the most funded startup in the Middle East and North Africa in 2018.

Swvl Mass Transport is an example of a startup that achieves great success at the beginning of its journey. The company started its operations in Egypt in 2017 with self-financing from its founders (Mustafa Qandil, Mahmoud Noah and Ahmed Sabah) that did not exceed $30,000 at the time. The idea of ​​Swvl was based on providing a reasonable alternative that combines low cost and efficiency, so that it enables individuals who wish to move away from public transportation, at a lower cost than the costs of shared transportation companies. In practical application, Swvl started operating large and small buses on specific routes, enabling users to book their trips through an application that runs on smartphones.

Funding continued to flow to Swvl, as in 2019 it succeeded in raising about $42 million from a Series C financing round, bringing the total amount it obtained, in less than two years following its foundation, to about $80 million. In view of this success, Swvl decided to move its headquarters to Dubai, in a building that includes large companies, such as: "BMW" and "Rolls-Royce". From Dubai Swvl worked to accelerate its expansion in large and important markets in the Middle East and Africa, including the Saudi, Pakistani and Emirati markets, as well as Nigeria and Kenya.

Media aura

Propelled by the rapid success it achieved, Swvl gained a great media aura since its launch. In 2018 the founders of Swvl were chosen among the Forbes Middle East list of the most influential youth under the age of 30, and in 2020 the name of Swvl appeared in the Forbes Middle East list of the “50 most funded startups in the Middle East”, where it ranked second, while its financial director, Youssef Salem, appeared on the same list in 2021. Mr. Salem is a prominent banker who used to work in Moelis & Co, who was among a large group of employees who were attracted by Swvl through generous salaries, temptations and other incentives.

This is in addition to many TV interviews and dozens of websites that dealt with the company's success story. The media aura contributed to increasing the confidence of investors and financiers in the success of the company and in the possibility of it becoming one of the largest companies in the field of mass transportation in the world, especially with its great expansion in foreign markets.

Acquisition and listing on NASDAQ

Swvl reached the pinnacle of its success in the summer of 2021 when it was listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange after its merger with Queen's Gambit Growth Capital, a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC), turning the startup that launched just 4 years ago, from a small company active in the streets of Cairo and Alexandria to a global company with a market valuation of $1.5 billion, this valuation at the time was considered exaggerated.

It is also worth noting that prior to this merger, two of the founders of Swvl had left; Mahmoud Noah, who later founded Capiter for business-to-business transactions, and Ahmed Sabah, who founded the emerging financial technology company Telda, while Mustafa Kandil continued to manage SWVL.

Less than a month after the announcement of Swvl’s listing on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, the company began an expansion process in global markets. It began its global activities by acquiring the Spanish “Shotl” smart transportation company specialized in ordering buses in Spain and 22 cities in 10 European countries, in addition to its activity in Brazil [1]. It also announced its acquisition of the German company "Door2door" in an undisclosed deal. In November, it acquired a controlling stake in the Argentine company Viapool, which operates in both Argentina and Chile, for $10 million.

Swvl's appetite for expansion and acquisition did not stop, and in April of 2022, i.e. one month after its shares began trading on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange at a value of $10 per share, Swvl announced two acquisition deals, the first of which was the acquisition of the Turkish "Volt Line" company for participatory transportation. Its value amounted to 40 million dollars, and the second was the conclusion of an initial deal with the British company "Zello" in preparation for its acquisition in a deal whose estimated value was about 100 million dollars [2]. This is in addition to pumping 25 million dollars allocated to increase expansion in the Turkish market through "Vault Line"[3].

Falling from the top

Less than two months after Swvl's shares began trading on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, the company's share price fell to about $5. In front of this sudden drop in the share price, Swvl announced the layoffs of 400 of its employees, or about a third of the company's employees, and the reason for taking this action, according to Swvl, because it would replace its laid-off cadres with fully automated systems, in order to reduce its expenses and focus on achieving profits starting from 2023. Commenting on the decline in its share price, Swvl's management stated, "The decline in the stock does not cause concern to the management, but we have a responsibility towards every shareholder who suffers a loss, and we try to separate the action plan that we are following and the fluctuation of the stock."

Swvl's announcement was not enough to stop the collapse of its share price. On the one hand, laying off 400 employees will not lead to immediate or certain results to achieve profits that satisfy investors and shareholders. Rather, the results of the layoffs need time to appear, in addition to the fact that the process of replacing automated systems in itself is a costly and complex process. On the other hand, Swvl did not stop expanding in new markets, as the company announced its acquisition of the Mexican company "Urbvan" for mass transportation [4]. This coincided with its announcement of its intention to enter the American market at the end of the same year, meaning that the goal of the company to focus on profits does not seem likely to be achieved in light of its continued expansion into new markets, which is one of the main reasons for the decline in Swvl's share price.

The major collapse in Swvl’s share price occurred on July 8, 2022, as the company’s share price fell to about a dollar and a half, and on September 20 of the same year, the share price fell below one dollar, and reached about 50 cents, thus losing Swvl about 95% of its value, as its market valuation fell from $1.5 billion to about $75 million. The downward path of Swvl's share continued with the beginning of 2023, bringing its share price to about 20 cents and its market value to about $9 million.

Why did Swvl stock fall?

In addition to the poor performance and management of the Swvl itself, specifically related to its rapid expansion policy, which cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars, the collapse of the share price of Swvl on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange is also attributed to the state of the global economy.

The COVID-19 pandemic hit the transportation industry hard, and Swvl was no exception. With lockdowns and social distancing measures in place, demand for public transportation plummeted, and Swvl was forced to suspend its services. In addition, the company faced financial and operational challenges, with its high operational costs and limited revenue streams putting it at risk of bankruptcy.

Also less than a month before the start of trading of Swvl shares on the Nasdaq, The Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, which caused a significant increase in energy prices, which negatively affected the operating costs of Swvl. The global economy in general entered a state of uncertainty and slowed growth, and many countries were affected by the global inflation situation caused by the Ukrainian crisis, including Egypt, Latin America and a number of countries in which Swvl is active. This situation also led to collapse of the prices of the national currencies of a large number of countries. Moreover, the US Federal Bank raised interest rates, which made it more expensive for startups to borrow and to finance their activities.

What also indicates that the crisis that Swvl went through is linked to external causes, is that the Nasdaq index itself lost nearly a third of its value in 2022 [5], in short, Swvl was not alone in this crisis, but rather it was doubly affected because its activities being linked to energy prices, which flew.

Swvl's actions did not achieve its desired goal, as we mentioned above, its share continued to decline, and it is known that the NASDAQ Stock Exchange prevents trading of shares of companies with a share price of less than one US dollar, which made Swvl exposed to the risk of being delisted from the NASDAQ Stock Exchange, especially since it received a warning in this concern from Nasdaq. Swvl's solution was a "reverse stock split" that turned every 25 shares into one. So that its shares have traded since March 2023, at a price ranging from two dollars to $1.07.

What fate awaits Swivel?

In view of the major collapse of Swvl, its CEO, Mustafa Kandil, decided on November 25 to lay off more than half of the workforce and sell, stop or reduce some operations in "smaller" countries, and focus mainly on Egypt and Mexico. Five weeks after this announcement, Swvl formed a panel of independent directors to explore potential sales, mergers and other options.

A reverse stock split may be a stopgap for Swvl from delisting from the Nasdaq stock exchange, but it may not last long given the company's plight.

According to Bloomberg, quoting a person familiar with the matter (who asked not to be named because the information is confidential), Swvl is now looking for new capital from investors, while it remains listed on the Nasdaq [6]. This may be hardly the only option for the continuation of Swvl, that is, obtaining new capital and turning into a private company, to restart again.

The company's leadership team recognized the need for change and embarked on a bold transformation strategy. They diversified their revenue streams, shifting their focus from bus rides to logistics and delivery services. They also implemented cost-cutting measures, streamlined operations, and renegotiated contracts with suppliers.

The company has also expanded its services to include last-mile deliveries, e-commerce logistics, and ride-hailing. Swvl's story is a testament to the resilience and adaptability of businesses in the face of adversity. It also teaches us the importance of diversifying revenue streams, being agile and flexible, and taking bold actions to survive and thrive in challenging times.

Sources:

* An economic term applied to emerging companies whose market valuation exceeds one billion dollars.

* Special purpose acquisition companies are public companies that have no business but to choose a private company to merge with, and the latter inherits the inclusion of the first.

[1] Swvl prepares to enter the Spanish market by purchasing Shotl buses, Wamda website, 08/19/2021, available at: https://bit.ly/407w5be

[2] Swvl acquires the English “Zilo” for $100 million, WAYA Arabic website, 08/05/2022, available at: https://bit.ly/3GNrfcd

[3] “Swvl” acquires the Turkish “Volt Line” for ride-hailing services, Lumberj Middle East, 04/25/2022, available at: https://bit.ly/3A0AIJw

[4] Swvl Acquires Mexican Urbvan to Penetrate Markets There, Arabia Inc, 07/18/2022, available at: https://bit.ly/3mBZUTA

[5] Sherif Othman, “The Nasdaq index lost nearly a third of its value in 2022,” Al-Araby Al-Jadeed website, 10/01/2022, available at: https://bit.ly/3GKrpRK

[6] Samuel Gebre at el, Middle East Unicorn Swvl’s Spectacular Rise and 99% Stock Tumble, bloomberglaw, 09/03/2023, Available at: https://bit.ly/43zVyNw