Reports (32)
شهد العالم في السنوات القليلة الماضية نموا سريعاً في عملية التحول الرقمي تقوده الشركات الكبرى والحكومات إذ ان عملية التحول الرقمي لم تعد فقط سباقا نحو الريادة في تقديم الخدمات الأفضل للزبائن بل أضحت ضرورة في الكثير من الأحيان، ولم تكن منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال افريقيا استثناء من ذلك لاسيما في دول الخليج حيث اطلقت الحكومات الخليجية وغيرها من الحكومات العربية في المنطقة استراتيجياتها الخاصة لأحداث عملية التحول الرقمي وقد كان لقطاع التكنولوجيا الرقمية الحصة الأكبر من عملية التحول الرقمي لما يمتلك هذا القطاع من خصوصية تميزه عن غيره من القطاعات، وذلك لجهة ارتباط السوق المالية بالسوق العالمية وما يفرضه ذلك من مواكبة لأخر التطورات التكنولوجية في هذا القطاع.
رافقت عمليات التحول الرقمي نمو غير مسبوق للشركات الناشئة المختصة في مجال التكنولوجيا المالية والتي تشمل خدمات المدفوعات والخدمات المصرفية والاستشارات المالية، وأسواق راس المال والتأمين، كما تسارعت وتيرة النمو في تنفيذ وتبني تطبيقات التكنولوجيا المالية عبر توظيف الذكاء الاصطناعي، والخدمات السحابية والبلوكتشين ليعاد بذلك رسم مشهد الخدمات المالية.
نقدم في هذا المقال عرضاً موجزاً لتقرير "مشاريع التكنولوجيا المالية في الشرق الأوسط وشمال افريقيا" الصادر عن مؤسسة ماغنيت (MAGNiTT) بالتعاون مع سوق أبو ظبي العالمي، عبر استعراضنا لمحاوره الرئيسية.
أولاً: اتجاهات الاستثمار في قطاع التكنولوجيا المالية
بلغت معدلات النمو السنوي في عدد شركات التكنولوجيا المالية الناشئة حوالي 39% منذ العام 2015 منها 51 شركة أطلقت في عام 2019، كما بلغت قيمة الاستثمارات في شركات التكنولوجيا المالية في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال افريقيا منذ العام 2015 نحو 237 مليون دولار نفذت عبر 181 صفقة ليبلغ متوسط قيمة الصفقات ما بين عامي 2015 و2019 حوالي 1.8 مليون دولار، وبنسبة 7% من اجمالي التمويل للمشاريع الناشئة في المنطقة لنفس المدة.
ومقارنة بباقي القطاعات الرئيسية التي تنشط فيها الشركات الناشئة، ظلت المؤشرات تفيد بسيطرة قطاع التجارة الالكترونية على نشاط الشركات الناشئة وعلى كافة المستويات، وبالرغم من ان الحديث مازال صحيحاً عن سيطرة قطاع التجارة الالكترونية على مستوى الشركات الناشئة إلا انه من الصحيح أيضا ان هذا القطاع يشهد اشباعا في السوق لذلك بدءنا نرى في الآونة الأخيرة تزايد في عدد الصفقات وقيم التمويل في قطاعات أخرى واهمها قطاع التكنولوجيا المالية حيث تفوق هذا القطاع على قطاع التجارة الالكترونية وباقي القطاعات في عدد الصفقات المبرمة في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال افريقيا في عامي 2018-2019 حتى تاريخه، ولكن ما تزال قيمة التمويلات لقطاع التكنولوجيا المالية منخفضة بالنظر الى ان الاستثمارات ماتزال في مراحلها المبكرة، أي اننا قد نرى في السنوات القليلة المقبلة تحول قطاع التكنولوجيا المالية الى مركز الصدارة بين القطاعات الاخرى ليس من حيث عدد الصفقات فحسب بل وبقيم التمويل أيضا.
بالأرقام بلغ عدد صفقات التكنولوجيا المالية من عام 2018 وحتى تاريخ اعداد التقرير 97 صفقة فيما جاء قطاع التجارة الالكترونية في المرتبة الثانية بـ 84 صفقة يليه قطاع التوصيل والنقل بـ 65.
اما من حيث التمويل فجاء قطاع التكنولوجيا المالية في المرتبة الرابعة بقيم تمويلي وصلت الى 74 مليون دولار فيما جاء قطاع التوصيل والنقل بـ 346 مليون دولار في المركز الأول يليه قطاع التجارة الالكترونية بـ 232 مليون دولار ثم في المركز الثالث قطاع العقارات بـ 223 مليون دولار.
ثانياً: محركات نمو قطاع التكنولوجيا المالية في الشرق الأوسط وشمال افريقيا
يرصد التقرير في هذا المحور اهم محركات النمو لقطاع التكنولوجيا المالية والتي يحددها بالآتي:
- التركيبة السكانية للمستهلكين: وصلت اعداد السكان في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال افريقيا لأكثر من 300 مليون حسب اخر الإحصاءات مما يجعل المنطقة سوقا ضخمة ومقصدا للشركات الناشئة لاسيما مع ارتفاع نصيب الفرد من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في دول الخليج العربي والتي يصل فيها نصيب الفرد بالمتوسط الى 29.1 ألف دولار سنويا، وهو من بين الأعلى في العالم، بالإضافة الى تميز المنطقة بارتفاع نسبة الشباب في المجتمع إذ لا يتجاوز متوسط الاعمار في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال افريقيا الـ 29 سنة.
- انتشار الانترنت وخدمات الدفع الالكتروني: يبلغ معدل انتشار الانترنت حوالي 52% في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال افريقيا وهي نسبة تفوق المعدل العالمي بحوالي الـ 10%، وفي دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي تصل النسبة الى 94% وهي من بين اعلى النسب لانتشار الانترنت في العالم، كما تصل نسبة انتشار حلول الدفع الالكترونية في دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي الى 76%.
- توجه المستهلكين نحو التكنولوجيا المالية: يبدي ما نسبته 76% من الاماراتيين ثقتهم بشركة تكنولوجيا واحدة على الأقل أكثر من ثقتهم بالبنوك عندما يتعلق الامر بأموالهم فيما يبدي 83% منهم انفتاحهم على تبني حلول تكنولوجيا مالية من قبل مؤسسات غير مالية، وهي نسب تتفوق على العديد من بلدان العالم الأكثر تقدماً في مجال التكنولوجيا المالية والنظم المصرفي.
- بيئات اختبار تنظيمية: أطلقت 8 حكومات في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال افريقيا (دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي بالإضافة الى كل من الأردن ومصر) 9 بيئات اختبار تنظيمية لتطوير واعتماد حلول التكنولوجيا المالية حيث باتت التكنولوجيا المالية واحدة من الأولويات الرئيسية للعديد من الحكومات في المنطقة وذلك لغرض تعزيز تبني التكنولوجيا المالية والابتكار وتحفيز الاستثمارات الأجنبية.
- صناديق ومسرعات التكنولوجيا المالية: أطلقت الحكومات في كل من الإمارات البحرين والسعودية ومصر صناديق تمويلية امام الشركات التكنولوجيا المالية الناشئة يصل راس مالها التراكمي الى 1.4 مليار دولار امريكي، كم تم انشاء 4 مسرعات وحاضنات حكومية لمشاريع التكنولوجيا المالية.
- توفر رأس المال الخاص: شهدت اعداد المستثمرين في الشركات الناشئة نموا مطردا في السنوات الأخيرة إذ وصلت نسبة النمو ما بين عامي 2015 و2019 حتى تاريخه الى أكثر من 130% حيث بلغت اعداد المستثمرين الـ 163 مستثمرا في عام 2019 فيما تشكل نسبة المستثمرين في قطاع التكنولوجيا المالية اكثر من 22%، وتشكل نسبة المستثمرين المحليين الى اجمالي المستثمرين حوالي 86%.
ثالثاً: توزع مشاريع التكنولوجيا المالية في الشرق الأوسط وشمال افريقيا
يعتبر قطاع الدفع عبر الإنترنت والتحويلات أكبر قطاع فرعي في صناعة التكنولوجيا المالية من ناحية عدد الصفقات. وخلال عام 2019 وحتى تاريخه، كان 45% من إجمالي الصفقات هي صفقات في شركات ناشئة تعمل في خدمات الدفع والتحويلات في ظل تزايد اهتمام المستثمرين في هذا القطاع. ومع ذلك، استحوذت قطاعات إدارة الثروات وأسواق رأس المال والتمويل الشخصي على نسبة لا بأس بها من الصفقات حيث وصلت النسبة لقطاع إدارة الثروات الى 16% وفي قطاع أسواق راس المال الى 10%، في حين استُثمِرَت مبالغ كبير في قطاع تكنولوجيا التأمين، لا سيما خدمات مقارنة منتجات وعروض التأمين.
ومن بين القطاعات الفرعية كذلك قطاع تكنولوجيا البلوكتشين الذي بات أولوية رئيسية للحكومات، ولكن لم يستحوذ هذا القطاع على قدر كبير من الاستثما حيث لم يتعد حجم الاستثمار فيه الـ 8% الى اجمالي الاستثمارات في قطاع التكنولوجيا المالية.
نما عدد شركات التكنولوجيا المالية الناشئة في جميع أنحاء منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا بشكل سريع خلال السنوات الماضية، حيث ازداد عددها بوتيرة أسرع من غيرها من القطاعات. ومنذ عام 2012، شهد عدد شركات التكنولوجيا المالية الناشئة معدل نمو سنوي مركب بلغ 39%، حيث يوجد الآن في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا ما مجموعه 310 شركة ناشئة نشطة في هذا المجال.
وفي هذا الصدد، تعتبر دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة هي أكبر نقطة جذب لشركات التكنولوجيا المالية في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا، حيث تستحوذ على 46% من إجمالي الشركات الناشئة في هذا القطاع، وكذلك على ما نسبته 47% من إجمالي الصفقات، و69% من إجمالي التمويل خلال عام 2019 وحتى تاريخه. كما يلحظ بروز متصاعد لمشاريع التكنولوجيا المالية في بلدان مثل البحرين ومصر والمملكة العربية السعودية، مع إطلاق العديد من المبادرات الخاصة والحكومية لتعزيز هذا القطاع.
(العربية)
A recently published report from MAGNIT and Startups 500 provides an overview of the business environment for startups in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) across a range of themes, including statistical studies aimed at identifying challenges and opportunities for entrepreneurs in the region.
The data were collected through a survey of more than 100 founders of companies based in the Middle East and North Africa, funded by the Startups 500 regional fund.
First: Demographic data
Most of the founders are in their early 30s
Demographic data show that 54% of startups surveyed were established over the past three years and only 9% were established before 2014, showing the growing growth of startups in the MENA region over the past few years. The report also showed that the percentage of companies established by two persons reached 51% compared to 20% for companies established by one person.
On the other hand, the majority of startups employ between 1-10 permanent employees, while the percentage of companies employing 50 employees and more was only 7%. The reason for the relative small number of employees is that most startups are based on service activities and use high technical tools, consequently they do not need a large number of employees.
Second: Fundraising
An investor’s network is the #1 priority for fundraising startups
This topic presents a series of questions that the founders were asked about their recent financing rounds, in terms of how long it took and the number of companies that have offered them financing in their recent rounds. The survey results indicate that more than 60% of startups did not continue their rounds for more than 6 Months during which 29% of companies received between 6 to 10 financing offers.
The authors of this report also raise important questions about the criteria associated with the search for the right investor and the difficulties they face in searching for funds, for example, the owners of the start-ups answered a question concerning the most important criteria to be taken into account when searching for the main investor for their startups, an important question to all financing seekers. The responders sorted the most important criteria in the following order: 1. Network Relations 2- Deal Conditions 3- Long Term Financing.
Third: Investment dynamics
Most startups will look for regional & intl. investors for future rounds
The report provides ample answers to start-up entrepreneurs' vision of their business prospects and their expectations for future gains, with 59% saying they are confident that their companies will be worth $ 100 million in the future, and 46% expect that they will be able to get out of their company within 3 to 5 years. This is a positive outlook, which gives an indication of the value of the estimated profits that people, who are going to start their own companies and investors in the startups sector, can get.
Fourth: recruiting talents
Hiring good people is among the top concerns of MENA founders
This report responds to questions about the difficulties experienced by entrepreneurs in the process of seeking the necessary competencies to employ in their startups. While financial and language barriers have not been a major obstacle for entrepreneurs, despite the difficulties facing entrepreneurs in finding the required talents, they are looking to recruit, on average, about 16 new employees next year.
Fifth: Operations
Large majority of startups focus on growth over profitability
In this regard, the report discusses the operational plans that the founders intend to implement in the future. In this regard, 81% of respondents said they are more interested in growth than making profits. 13% of them indicated that they had started to make profits.
Sixth: 500 Startups, Who are their portfolio startups?
Most startups are based in Dubai, followed by Cairo and Riyadh
The report presents a series of information related to the nature of the sectors in which the startups are working and the amount of funds raised and other important information. As for the question about the headquarters, Dubai and Cairo ranked first and second with 27% and 23% respectively. Riyadh came in third place with 11%. The most important sectors that the startup companies focus on are all belonging to the services sector led by electronic commerce, consumer services and financial technological solutions.
Investment in digital transformation is a top priority for asset management says new survey
29 Sep 2019 Written by Admin AdminDigital transformation is a top priority for asset managers, according to a new report published by banking software company Temenos investigating the views and intentions of the asset management industry over the coming 12 months.
Significant constraints imposed by legacy technology systems however were cited by 54 per cent of respondents globally as a major problem holding them back.
The report entitled: “Digital transformation in fund administration: The road ahead”, delves into responses from over 150 asset managers, fund administrators and custodians across Europe, the United States and Asia.
The global asset management industry is experiencing fundamental shifts that will shape its future.
The report shows that digital transformation is set to play a large part in this future.
The survey found that investment in new technology and digital transformation is the number one focus in asset management, with 38 per cent of respondents saying it will be their firm’s biggest focus over the next 12 months.
Digital transformation is followed by a focus on investment in product development (19 per cent), operational efficiency (16 per cent) and distribution (12 per cent).
An overwhelming majority of respondents, more than 90 per cent of those surveyed, also said that investment in operational systems is now essential for asset managers to improve efficiencies and reduce costs.
29 per cent of respondents cited data analytics as the highest priority for investment.
Despite the imperative to digitally transform, nearly a quarter of respondents (23 per cent) said asset servicers, such as fund administrators and custodians, are not currently keeping pace with the changing requirements of asset managers.
54 per cent of respondents globally cite legacy technology as a major problem holding asset management firms back from delivering high quality services through digital channels. In the US, this problem is even more exacerbated, with 60 per cent of respondents saying that legacy systems remained a major problem.
The survey also highlighted that outsourcing of functions to asset servicers is set to narrow, with over two-thirds of those surveyed (68 per cent) saying it was important to have one strategic service provider who can support all outsourcing requirements.
Many respondent firms are already moving in this direction, with more than half (55 per cent) saying that they have a single provider in place or will do so within three years.
source: institutionalassetmanager
Rock Health calculated there was $29.4 billion in capital invested in digital health startups since 2011 that were still waiting on returns and examined the two routes companies have to return liquidity to investors: IPOs and M&A.
Concern about slowing investment in the digital health earlier this year has largely abated as the industry looks likely to meet or exceed 2018’s record-breaking funding haul, according to a report from Rock Health.
Digital health companies raised a total of $4.2 billion through the first half of 2019, which projected out for the rest of the year would reach $8.4 billion, $200 million more than 2018’s $8.2 billion figure.
The volume of deals has dropped slightly – with $100 million-plus investment deals making up around 30 percent of the deals in 2019 – and largely driving the investment trend. Average deal size is also up to $23.1 million, compared to $21.9 million in 2018 and $15.9 million in 2017.
Rock Health calculated there was $29.4 billion in capital invested in digital health startups since 2011 that were still waiting on returns and examined the two routes companies have to return liquidity to investors: IPOs and M&A.
Much attention has been on the companies testing the public markets this year after a digital health IPO drought that has lasted since 2016. According to Rock Health, IPO companies in digital health raised an average of $199 million and went public at an average age of 9.4 years.
Mountain View, California-based Livongo Health was the latest digital health company filing to go public, with a planned listing on the Nasdaq later this year. The chronic disease management company joins Phreesia and Health Catalyst as part of the raft of healthcare technology companies planning to go public in 2019.
Nashville-based Change Healthcare had their initial public offering last week, trading at $13 a share, below the $16 to $19 range that the company had targeted.
The success of these companies’ efforts will likely signal the near-term viability of IPOs as an exit route for the industry. A few of the IPO potential companies identified by Rock Health are telemedicine company American Well, genetic testing company 23andMe and cardiac imaging company Heartflow.
During the IPO drought, the exit opportunity that would offer liquidity to investors was M&A, with 120 and 110 exits respectively for 2017 and 2018.
This year’s M&A activity has slowed somewhat. There have only been 43 acquisitions in the first half of 2019, if that number is projected out, deal flow would be 25 percent lower than in the past couple of years.
While other digital health companies still remain the most active acquirers in the space, Rock Health spotlights other categories like consumer technology companies and non-healthcare companies looking to enter the industry through M&A like Amazon, J.P. Morgan and Best Buy.
Source: medcitynews
Foreign direct investment to Africa defies global slump, rises 11%
01 Jul 2019 Written by Admin AdminAfrica escaped the global decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) as flows to the continent rose to US$46 billion in 2018, an increase of 11% on the previous year, according to UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2019.
Growing demand for some commodities and a corresponding rise in their prices as well as the growth in non-resource-seeking investment in a few economies underpinned the rise.
While FDI in some large economies on the continent – such as Nigeria and Egypt – contracted, this was outweighed by a surge in flows to others, most significantly, South Africa.
“The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement will bolster regional cooperation. This, along with upbeat growth prospects, augurs well for FDI flows to the continent,” UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi said.
North Africa
FDI flows to North Africa climbed by 7% to $14 billion.
Investments in Egypt contracted (down by 8% to $6.8 billion), but the country continued to be the largest FDI recipient in Africa.
FDI to Morocco increased by 36% to $3.6 billion on the back of sizeable investments in finance and the automotive sector.
Sub-Saharan and Southern Africa
FDI flows to Sub-Saharan Africa climbed by 13% to $32 billion, recovering ground after successive contractions in the two prior years.
Southern Africa saw the biggest turnaround, with flows recovering to $4.2 billion after net divestment of $925 million the previous year.
FDI in South Africa more than doubled to $5.3 billion, although this was largely attributable to intracompany transfers by established investors.
Angola remained negative (-$5.7 billion), mainly as a result of oil and gas firms transferring funds to parent companies through intracompany loans.
East Africa
FDI held steady at $9 billion in East Africa, the fastest-growing region of the continent.
Ethiopia topped the region, even as flows to the country declined by 18%, to $3.3 billion.
Flows to Kenya swelled by 27% to $1.6 billion, due to investment in diverse sectors, including manufacturing, hospitality, chemicals and oil and gas.
West Africa
FDI to West Africa declined by 15%, to $9.6 billion, largely due to Nigeria where flows plunged by 43% to $2 billion.
Flows to Ghana also dipped, albeit by a more moderate 8%, to $3 billion.
Looking ahead
Multinational enterprises from developing countries are expanding their activities in Africa but investors from developed countries remained the key players.
Based on data through 2017, France is the largest investor in Africa, although its stock of investment has remained largely unchanged since 2013, followed by the Netherlands, the United States, the United Kingdom and China.
Growing demand and a corresponding rise in the price of commodities, of which Africa is a key producer, are expected to prop up FDI flows to the continent in 2019.
Closer regional integration aided by the AfCFTA can also draw additional FDI flows.
While investment in manufacturing and services is likely to be sustained, this is expected to be confined to a few countries in North and Southern Africa, and the emerging manufacturing hubs in East Africa.
Special economic zones buttress prospects
The growing number of special economic zones (SEZs) could become another factor in drawing investment to the continent in the coming years.
There are an estimated 237 SEZs in Africa, some still under construction, along with more than 200 single-enterprise zones (so-called free points).
SEZs operate in 38 of the 54 economies on the continent, with the highest number in Kenya (61).
The three largest economies of the continent – Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt – all have well developed SEZ programmes.
Many smaller economies have only established SEZ frameworks in the last decade and tend to have fewer zones.
Stronger regional cooperation also creates scope for more ambitious regional and cross-border zones.
In 2018, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire and Mali launched an SEZ spanning border regions of the three countries. Similarly, Ethiopia and Kenya recently announced their intention to convert the Moyle region into a cross-border free trade zone.
source:unctad
61% of Major Global Digital Firms Invest in Blockchain, Report Finds
25 Apr 2019 Written by Admin Admin61 percent of high-profile digital companies worldwide are investing in blockchain, according to a report by identity management firm Okta shared with Cointelegraph on April 2.
San Francisco-based enterprise identity provider Okta has released a survey on new trends in technological developments and business opportunities of the world’s largest companies.
In its first “Digital Enterprise Report,” Okta surveyed 1,050 IT, security and engineering decision makers from global companies with at least $1 billion in revenue. Okta explained that decision makers were defined as someone at the company who is “responsible for making technology purchasing decisions.”
The company collected survey responses in January and February 2019 in order to find out how businesses are applying emerging technologies.
According to the report, most decision makers have preferred to invest in the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, as 72 percent of survey respondents said they invested in IoT, and 68 percent claimed that they invested in AI.
With that, 61 percent of respondents revealed that they invested in blockchain, while 58 percent said they invested in augmented reality technology.
Percentage of investment in various emerging technologies by large companies. Source: Okta Digital Enterprise Report
Out of total 1,050 decision makers, 90 percent claimed that their companies are working on formal digital transformation and investing in at least one of the aforementioned technologies.
Recently, United States-based market research firm International Data Corporation predicted that global blockchain spending will account for almost $2.9 billion in 2019, which is an 88.7 percent increase from 2018.
Source: cointelegraph
التبادلات التجارية الخليجية- السويسرية وآفاقها المستقبلية 2000-2017
01 Apr 2019 Written by Admin SAE
تعود العلاقات الاقتصادية بين منطقة الخليج العربي وسويسرا الى عقود مضت إلا ان تلك العلاقات بدأت تأخذ منحنى تصاعدياً سريعاً في السنوات القليلة الماضية بسبب الجهود المبذول من الطرفين في سبيل تعزيز التعاون الاقتصادي الذي كلل بتوقيع اتفاقية التجارة الحرة بين مجلس التعاون الخليجي ورابطة دول الإفتا, التي تضم الى جانب سويسرا كل من النرويج وأيسلندا وليختنشتاين ,في عام 2009 لتدخل حيز التنفيذ عام 2015, تلك الاتفاقية التي تعتبر اول اتفاقية اقتصادية يقوم بها مجلس التعاون الخليجي ككيان موحد مع تكتل اقتصادي خارج المنطقة العربية, ومن الجدير بذكره ان سويسرا تعتبر العضو الاهم في رابطة الإفتا نظراً لتفوقها الاقتصادي وحجم تبادلاتها التجارية مقارنةً بباقي دول الرابطة.
تعكس اتفاقية التجارة الحرة، بالإضافة الى جهود التعاون الأخرى المتمثلة بزيارة الوفود الاقتصادية الرسمية والخاصة وإقامة المعارض وتأسيس لجان ومجالس مشتركة كمجلس رجال الاعمال السويسريين في قطر ومجلس رجال الاعمال السويسريين في دبي والمنطقة الشمالية، رغبة الطرفين في تعزيز التبادلات الاقتصادية، فالتجارة المتبادلة لا تأثر فقط في حجم التبادل السلعي بل تحمل معها أيضا زيادة في الاستثمارات المتبادلة وما يعنيه ذلك من فتح المزيد من الفرص الاستثمارية امام رواد الأعمال العرب-السويسريين.
نركز في هذا التقرير على تطور التبادلات التجارية بين دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي وسويسرا وذلك من حيث حجم التبادلات واهم السلع المستوردة والمصدرة من قبل الجانبين، من خلال رصد نمو التبادلات كماً ونوعاً بهدف تعريف القارئ على الفرص الاستثمارية والتجارية بين الجانبين وآفاقها المستقبلية.
القاريء الكريم
اننا نبذل جهودا كبيرة لتوفير المعلومات الهامة والمفيدة واعداد التقارير المتخصصة التي تحتوي على معلومات تفصيلية وبيانات اقتصادية غاية في الأهمية، ومن هنا فاننا نعول على تفهمك للمساهمة في انجاح المنصة والمساعدة في تغطية التكاليف اللازمة كي نتمكن من توفير كل ما هو مفيد وجديد.
نشكر لك تفهمك واننا نتطلع الى مساهمتك لدعم منصتنا ونرجوا منك الاشتراك للحصول على النسخة الكاملة من التقرير.
مع خالص شكرنا تقديرنا.
النسخة الكاملة للتقرير (يرجى التسجيل على الرابط التالي https://saentrepreneurs.ch/index.php/plans/magazine/sign-up)
أو الاشتراك في عضوية الموقع
This section of the article is only available for our subscribers. Please click here to subscribe to a subscription plan to view this part of the article.
GCC Investment and Development Awards 2018
Following disappointing GDP growth in 2017, GCC nations made a concerted effort to ensure sustainable economic development and structural diversification were prioritised throughout 2018
Since its inception in 1981, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has pushed an ambitious programme of infrastructure development and economic reform, with the aim of reducing the region’s dependence on oil. The importance of this diversification project has become clear over the past 12 months, as fluctuations in crude oil prices have revealed weaknesses in the region’s economies.
Global trade tensions and the reimposition of US sanctions on Iran have also contributed to a challenging fiscal environment. However, this has only spurred the GCC’s programme further, with countries including Qatar and Saudi Arabia accelerating development projects. Investment has also been catalysed by the renewed drive for diversification, with foreign investment increasingly encouraged by regional governments. This has led the IMF to raise its economic growth predictions to 3.9 percent over the next 12 months, according to its Regional Economic Outlook.
In the quest for growth, the most successful players are, as ever, those that balance speed and sustainability by implementing structural reforms alongside investment. The World Finance GCC Investment & Development awards recognise those that are taking action now to safeguard the future economy.
Leaving oil behind
Economic growth in the GCC bottomed out in 2017, falling by 0.2 percent across all six member states. Saudi Arabia saw its first economic contraction since 2009, due for the most part to oil production cuts introduced by the so-called ‘OPEC+’ group. Historic heavy reliance on oil revenues has left many GCC nations beholden to the fluctuations of the market, which has been particularly volatile since hitting a low point in 2014.
The outlook for oil was far brighter in 2018, with prices climbing to four-year highs of $82.16 per barrel in September. This provided a spell of relief for the GCC’s five oil-exporting nations, with Oman registering the region’s leading GDP recovery of 3.8 percent. Nevertheless, past oil fluctuations have clearly spooked the GCC states, with all opting to pour additional funds into non-oil ventures in 2018.
Infrastructure development in particular has accelerated in the context of several high-profile global events, notably Expo 2020 Dubai and the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. Qatar is forecast to spend $220bn in preparation for the tournament, which includes the construction of an entirely new city, Lusail, featuring a 90,000-seat stadium where the final game will be held. Once complete, the city is expected to house 250,000 future residents. Meanwhile, Dubai has allocated AED 56.6bn ($15.41bn) to Expo preparations, which comprise the conference site itself, an extension of the metro line to access the area, and the AED 735m ($200m) Museum of the Future, which is widely considered to be one of the most complex buildings in the world.
In Kuwait, construction forms part of the country’s seven-pillar New Kuwait Vision 2035 strategy, which aims to transform the country into a financial and trade centre. At the annual Leaders in Construction Summit, the country’s chief of development, Talal Al-Shammari, announced a 46 percent increase in capital expenditure on infrastructure projects for the 2018-19 financial year, to $14.4bn.
Supportive substructure
Many GCC countries have also embarked on a programme of bureaucratic reform to complement infrastructure development and allow the private sector to thrive. In February 2018, Bahrain introduced a wage protection scheme that seeks to end the exploitation of staff by ensuring they are paid on time. It was launched in May and will be rolled out in a controlled release programme until May 2019.
Qatar’s visa-free entry programme, launched in 2017 in an effort to boost tourism, has been expanded this year to include Indian and Ukrainian nationals in a sign of increased openness from the Qatari Government. It has also pledged to put an end to the notorious kafala system that disadvantages migrant workers. However, more transparency is needed with regards to workers’ rights.
In May, Kuwait’s parliament voted to delay the introduction of VAT until 2021, ensuring operating costs remain at the current rate for private companies. To date, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only GCC countries to have implemented VAT.
With regards to the international sphere, all GCC countries have been opening up their economies to foreign direct investment (FDI) over the past year as part of their respective diversification strategies. In terms of volume, the UAE is the region’s largest destination for FDI, drawing in around $9bn in 2018. The country has also announced key changes to its residency programme, offering foreign investors a 10-year residency visa with the aim of boosting FDI by 15 percent over the next year. Meanwhile, FDI inflows to Bahrain grew 138 percent over the first three quarters of the year, the fastest rate of all GCC nations. In May, the country announced it would extend the term of residence visas for qualified investors and professionals from two years to 10 to further attract foreign interest.
In the past 12 months, under its Saudi Vision 2030 plan to transform economic and social infrastructure, Saudi Arabia has implemented more business-related reforms to boost international investment than any other GCC country. The World Bank noted it introduced reforms across six of its 10 pillars in its Doing Business 2018 report, from reducing documents needed for customs clearance to implementing online systems for administrative tasks.
The kingdom has welcomed western banks in particular, with Citibank becoming the latest firm to receive a banking licence, joining JPMorgan Chase and HSBC. International fiscal interest was reignited at the beginning of 2018 when Saudi Arabia announced it would float five percent of state oil giant Saudi Aramco. This was predicted to be the largest IPO in history before it was called off in August, with the company’s chairman, Khalid al-Falih, announcing in a statement: “The government remains committed to the IPO of Saudi Aramco at a time of its own choosing when conditions are optimum.” He added that the timing of the IPO will depend on “favourable market conditions” and a “downstream acquisition”, which the company will pursue in 2019. London, New York and Hong Kong exchanges have been vying for some time to list the Saudi oil giant, which is expected to be valued at around $5trn at IPO.
Looking ahead
The GCC has plenty to look forward to over the next few years, with high-profile events bringing prosperity and new interest to the region. The IMF named the FIFA World Cup and Kuwait’s implementation of five-year growth plans as key stimuli over the next 12 months. Increased FDI and further progress on key infrastructure development projects will also help diversify the economies of all six member nations.
As ever, those that are committed to economic diversification, welcoming foreign investment and opening up their nations are the firms that are reaping the rewards of the affluent region. It is these individuals and companies that World Finance recognises in the 2018 GCC Investment & Development Awards.
Source: world finance
GDP growth in the region is projected to strengthen to 3.0 percent in 2018, and rise slightly.
higher in 2019-2020, with oil exporters continuing their recovery from the collapse of oil prices, and oil importers experiencing a smaller acceleration.
The outlook assumes continued policy reforms and oil prices remaining above their 2017 average. In 2018, growth in oil exporters is expected to rise substantially to 2.7 percent due to additional government spending, enabled by increased domestic revenues and firm oil prices.
In the GCC, 2018 growth will be further supported by higher fixed investment, bolstered by public investment programs and improved demand. Growth will remain stable during 2019-20, propelled by steady growth in private consumption, infrastructure investment programs like those related to the Dubai Expo 2020 or Qatar’s World Cup 2022, and the expiration of OPEC+ agreement.
Growth in non-GCC exporters is expected to be supported by higher capital expenditures.Fiscal balances in oil exporters are expected to improve as oil prices are forecast to stay firm and revenue-enhancing measures, such as VAT and energy subsidy reforms, are implemented.
These measures are expected to improve the non-oil share of government revenue in oil exporters. Higher oil prices are also expected to support remittance inflows (World Bank 2018j).
Growth in oil importers is expected to rise to 4.0 percent in 2018, as business and consumer confidence are spurred by business climate reforms and improving external demand.
Policies to relax foreign investment restrictions have supported higher capital flows, and are expected to boost foreign investment and trade flows, in part through relaxing financial constraints in firms(Kiendrebeogo and Minea 2017; Wood and Yang2016).
Tourism growth is also expected to improve upon stable security conditions. However, fiscal consolidation is expected to be an important headwind for activity among oil importers. In smaller oil importers (e.g., Jordan, Lebanon), external and fiscal imbalances remain a constraint to higher growth in the short-term. Reform programs, such as World Bank-supported initiatives to improve urban investment capacity or electricity performance, are expected to improve growth potential (World Bank 2017e, 2018k).
Similarly, public-private partnerships and bilateral agreements within the region are expected to support private sector participation in infrastructure investment, which benefits economic activity (Figure 2.4.2, Arezki et al. 2018; Calderon and Serven 2004).
Additional plans in energy subsidy reforms or tax revenue enhancement across oil importers will support further fiscal adjustment The short-term outlook in MENA is positive. Public-private partnerships are expected to support private sector participation in infrastructure investment.
However, geopolitical tensions may deter the recovery of tourism in oil importers.
Upside risks are associated with the possibility of higher-than-expected activity in key trading partners.
Risks
Risks to the outlook are diverse, but tilt to the downside. Key downside risks include renewed volatility in oil prices, an intensification of geopolitical tensions, and a slower-than-expected pace of reforms.
Nonetheless, favorable spillovers from stronger than expected activity in key trading partners and recovery in war-torn areas cannot be ruled out.
On the downside, the recent rise in oil prices may not be sustained in the short term, potentially due to higher-than-expected U.S. shale production This would reduce fiscal space in oil exporters and complicate fiscal management reform across many economies.
Tighter fiscal policy in oil exporters may lead to spillovers to oil importers via external linkages (e.g., FDI and remittances).
Volatility in oil prices may also affect oil importers through their current account exposure to higher oil prices.
The amplification of security concerns or escalation of geopolitical tensions may cloud oil importers’ tourism prospects, which have strengthened considerably in the past year. Intra- and interregional tensions in the region may also affect investor confidence and access to finance, such as through higher sovereign spreads.
Continued progress in reforms could face challenges to implementation. Among oil importers, potential social discontent about higher energy prices may lead to delayed implementation of fiscal adjustments. This issue may be further compounded by the high debt levels (in some cases exceeding 100 percent of GDP) among several economies in the region.
The loss of momentum in these reforms could negatively impact longer-term growth in the region.
On the upside, positive growth surprises in key advanced and emerging economy trading partners would provide an important support to growth in MENA.
Oil-importing economies in the Maghreb region are dependent on the Euro Area for trade, remittances, or financial flows. Stronger-thanexpected external demand could mitigate headwinds to growth associated with domestic policy uncertainty in smaller oil importers, or from potential spillovers associated with reduced FDI and remittance flows from GCC economies to oil importers.
Stronger-than-expected impacts from reconstruction programs and rising infrastructure investment in war-torn countries, such as Iraq, could lead to a sustained economic recovery. Associated spillover effects could unlock the potential for higher growth among other countries in the region.
This would also allow the restoration of access to health, water, or food (Devarajan and Mottaghi 2017a; World Bank 2018l) to these economies, and improve the conditions of neighboring host economies (e.g., Djibouti, Jordan, Lebanon) by providing more resources for public services for both host residents and refugees (Devarajan and Mottaghi 2017b).
Source: World Bank.
Emerging Markets have suffered in recent years due to low commodities prices and slower global demand. With signs that emerging markets were on the comeback trail in 2017, many analysts earlier this year believed that 2018 would be much brighter for Emerging Markets, however, there are signs that tailwinds are fading. The IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook that this year and next, "growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off.”
Our economists believe that there is a growing divergence between developed and developing economies. Among developing nations with economies with relatively solid fundamentals and driven by commodity exports—especially oil—growth is accelerating this year going into next. However, higher yields in the United States, the rise in energy prices and large exposure to foreign debt are putting pressure on some oil-importing countries and those with persistent macroeconomic imbalances. This mostly results in heightened volatility in their financial and equity markets, as well as sizeable currency depreciations. Let’s take a closer look at what’s expected for some of these countries in the coming year:
China
Global and domestic headwinds are expected to impact growth in H2 and beyond. The brewing full-blown trade war between China and the United States is the main downside risk to the country’s economic outlook. Domestic threats, however, including a cooling property market and financial deleveraging, are also building. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy will grow 6.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the economy is seen expanding 6.3%.
India
A normalization in cash conditions following the demonetization of late 2016 and the fading of disruptions from last year’s launch of the Goods and Services Tax should facilitate the economic recovery in FY 2018. Nonetheless, risks of fiscal slippage in the run-up to elections next year, concerns over the banking sector in India, increasing global trade tensions and higher oil prices all cloud prospects. Our panel expects GDP growth of 7.3% in FY 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 7.5% in FY 2019.
Russia
Growth in Russia is expected to pick up this year, thanks to strengthening private consumption and firmer oil prices. An improving labor market and low inflation should buoy household spending, while higher commodity prices will support export growth. That said, high geopolitical uncertainty and the possibility of further economic sanctions remain key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, growth is seen steady at 1.7%.
Brazil
Brazil’s growth forecast was chopped for a third consecutive month as the truckers’ strike, a less supportive global backdrop and higher oil prices dent the country’s outlook. FocusEconomics panelists now see the Brazilian economy growing 1.7% this year, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. A market-friendly outcome to October’s election remains critical to ensuring a sustainable recovery; however, this is far from certain. Next year, GDP is seen growing 2.5%.
Mexico
Household spending and exports are expected to drive growth this year in Mexico. Tight job markets—both domestically and stateside—and improved private-sector lending should support private consumption, while healthy factory output in the U.S. should bolster manufacturing exports. Uncertainty over NAFTA continues to weigh heavily on investment prospects, although the odds of reaching a deal have improved in recent weeks. On politics, most analysts currently expect AMLO to govern as a centrist. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.2% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2019, panelists see growth stable at 2.2%.
Argentina
Despite a healthy first quarter, the pace of growth is expected to slow sharply this year. The loss of agricultural output following the severe drought; extremely high interest rates and currency volatility, which will weigh on investment decisions; and consumer spending constrained by low confidence and rapid inflation are seen driving this deceleration. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast foresee the economy expanding 0.4% in 2018, down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, growth is expected to reach 1.9%.
Turkey
Economic growth in Turkey will likely weaken in the coming quarters, on tighter financial conditions, shaky investor sentiment and a higher oil import bill. Exchange rate volatility, geopolitical tensions, a gaping current account deficit and elevated inflation pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.2% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. They see growth of 3.5% in 2019.
Romania
Higher inflation and a loss in consumer confidence should lead to a marked slowdown in consumer spending this year, denting GDP growth in Romania. Although the expansion in fixed investment should gain some strength, low EU funds absorption will limit the extent of the acceleration. Downside risks stem from widening fiscal and current account deficits. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.1% for 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2019.
Egypt
The Egyptian economy is expected to grow at a solid pace in FY 2019. This is due to higher investment on the back of increased government spending and an improved regulatory environment. Moreover, the external sector should continue to benefit from the weaker pound. However, large fiscal imbalances and the higher price of oil will weigh on prospects. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 5.1% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.9% in FY 2020.
South Africa
Greater political stability and firm credit ratings bode well for the South African economy in 2018 as full-year economic prospects look set to largely ride out the weak first quarter. Real wage gains should support stronger household spending this year, while the government’s push to attract investment should bolster capital outlays. Nevertheless, fiscal slippage and a slow reform agenda are likely to constrain growth over the medium term. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.6% in 2018, down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2019.
Nigeria
Higher oil prices, improved liquidity and increased public spending in the run-up to the 2019 elections should fuel faster growth this year in Nigeria. However, political uncertainty, as well as security concerns, continues to pose risks to economic activity. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to increase 2.4% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last year’s projection. Next year, growth is seen rising to 2.9%.
