In a significant move to boost foreign investment and enhance market liquidity, the Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA) has announced that foreign investors are now permitted to invest in Saudi companies listed on the Saudi stock exchange that own property within the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

This decision, effective immediately, follows the approval of regulations that exempt these listed companies from the restrictions outlined in the Foreign Ownership of Real Estate Investment Regulations.

This landmark decision is expected to have a profound impact on the Saudi capital market. By allowing foreign investors to participate in companies with real estate assets in these holy cities, the CMA aims to:

• Stimulate Investment: Attract foreign capital, thereby increasing investment activity and overall market liquidity.
• Enhance Market Efficiency: Improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the Saudi capital market on both regional and international levels.
• Support Economic Growth: Contribute to the overall economic growth of Saudi Arabia by fostering development projects in Mecca and Medina.
• Increase Market Attractiveness: Position the Saudi capital market as a more attractive investment destination for both domestic and international investors.

The new regulations governing foreign investment in these companies outline specific guidelines:

• Investment Scope: Foreign investment will be restricted to shares of listed companies or convertible debt instruments, with a collective ownership limit of 49% for non-Saudi individuals and entities.
• Strategic Investor Exemption: Foreign strategic investors are exempt from this ownership limit.
• Real Estate Focus: The regulations specifically target companies with real estate assets within the boundaries of Mecca and Medina.

These regulations aim to provide a framework for foreign investors to participate in the economic growth associated with projects in these holy cities while ensuring compliance with existing laws and regulations related to foreign real estate ownership.

Furthermore, the regulations allow listed Saudi companies to acquire ownership, usufruct, or use rights over properties designated for their headquarters or branch offices within Mecca and Medina, provided these properties are solely used for this purpose and adhere to the relevant exceptions within the Foreign Ownership of Real Estate Regulations.

This latest move by the CMA builds upon a series of initiatives aimed at enhancing the accessibility and attractiveness of the Saudi capital market to foreign investors. These initiatives include:

• Direct Investment: Allowing resident foreign investors to directly invest in the Saudi stock market.
• Swap Agreements: Facilitating foreign investor access to the Saudi stock market through swap agreements.
• Foreign Financial Institution Investments: Permitting qualified foreign financial institutions to invest in listed securities.
• Strategic Investments: Allowing foreign strategic investors to acquire strategic stakes in listed companies.
• Direct Debt Investments: Enabling foreign investors to directly invest in debt instruments.

In 2021, the CMA further expanded foreign investor participation by allowing them to invest in real estate funds focused on properties within Mecca and Medina.

This move aimed to diversify financing channels within the capital market and align with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030, which prioritizes attracting both domestic and foreign investment.

The final version of these regulations was developed following a public consultation process conducted on November 15, 2023. The consultation, conducted through the Istitalah platform (a unified electronic platform for public and government agency feedback) and the CMA's official website, sought public input on the "Regulations for Foreign Investors' Ownership of Shares in Saudi Listed Companies with Investment Properties in Mecca and Medina."

This significant regulatory change is expected to have a positive impact on the Saudi economy, attracting foreign capital and fostering economic growth within the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

By creating a more inclusive and attractive investment environment, the CMA continues to play a crucial role in supporting the long-term development and diversification of the Saudi capital market.

إريك ريس، مؤلف كتاب الشركة الناشئة المرنة، أحدث ثورة في طريقة تفكير رواد الأعمال بشأن إنشاء وتطوير الشركات. خلال حديثه في جوجل، قدم ريس خلاصة من كتابه، مبرزًا إطار عمل لإدارة عدم اليقين وبناء شركات ناشئة ناجحة. إذا كنت رائد أعمال يتطلع لتعظيم فرص النجاح، فإليك بعض الأفكار التحويلية من فلسفة الشركة الناشئة المرنة:

1. إعادة تعريف ريادة الأعمال

ريادة الأعمال ليست مقتصرة على فرق التقنية في وادي السيليكون. يتحدى ريس القالب النمطي الذي يربط ريادة الأعمال بالعمل في الشركات الناشئة التقنية. بدلاً من ذلك، يُعرّف ريادة الأعمال بأنها إنشاء شيء جديد في ظل ظروف غموض شديدة. سواء كنت في شركة عملاقة أو ضمن فريق صغير، إذا كنت تبتكر وتتعامل مع عدم اليقين، فأنت رائد أعمال. هذا المفهوم يفتح باب ريادة الأعمال للجميع، بغض النظر عن الصناعة أو حجم الشركة.

2. التعلم المُتحقق كهدف أساسي

يؤكد ريس أن جوهر ريادة الأعمال هو التعلم المُتحقق - اكتشاف ما يريده العملاء حقًا، وليس فقط بناء ما نفترض أنهم يحتاجونه. تستبدل هذه الطريقة المقاييس التقليدية للنجاح، مثل الكفاءة أو عدد الميزات، بالتركيز على التعلم من خلال التفاعل المباشر مع العملاء وردود فعلهم.

ولتحقيق ذلك، ينصح ريس باستخدام دورة بناء - قياس - تعلم، وهي دورة مستمرة تتكون من:

• بناء نموذج مبدئي بسيط،
• قياس استجابة العملاء،
• التعلم لاتخاذ قرار الاستمرار أو التغيير.

3. قوة الحد الأدنى من المنتج القابل للتطبيق (MVP)

غالبًا ما تهدر الشركات الناشئة الوقت والموارد في بناء منتجات متكاملة لا يريدها أحد. يدعو ريس إلى مفهوم الحد الأدنى من المنتج القابل للتطبيق (MVP)، وهو نسخة مبسطة من المنتج تحتوي فقط على الميزات الأساسية لجمع التعلم المُتحقق.

يوضح ريس، على سبيل المثال، أنه بدلاً من إطلاق برامج معقدة، يمكن للشركات استخدام صفحات هبوط أو نماذج أولية بسيطة لقياس اهتمام العملاء بسرعة وبتكلفة منخفضة.

4. التغيير ليس فشلًا

من أكثر الأفكار إلهامًا التي يقدمها ريس هي التغيير (Pivot) - تغيير المسار بناءً على ردود فعل العملاء. التغيير ليس علامة على الفشل، بل دليل على المرونة. يكمن سر نجاح الشركات الناشئة في تقليل الوقت بين التغييرات. كل تغيير يُحسن المنتج ويقربه مما يحتاجه العملاء فعليًا.

يؤكد ريس أن مدة بقاء الشركة الناشئة لا تُقاس فقط بالأموال المتبقية، بل بعدد التغييرات الممكنة قبل نفاد الموارد.

5. المحاسبة الابتكارية: قياس ما يهم

يقدم ريس مفهوم المحاسبة الابتكارية، وهو نظام مصمم لقياس التقدم في الشركات الناشئة عندما تكون المقاييس التقليدية غير كافية. بدلاً من المقاييس الوهمية (مثل عدد الزوار أو الإعجابات على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي)، يجب على رواد الأعمال تتبع مقاييس قابلة للتنفيذ ترتبط مباشرة بسلوك العملاء.

يشدد ريس على أهمية معرفة المقاييس الأساسية، وضع أهداف واضحة، وقياس التقدم بدقة لخلق وضوح ومساءلة في عملية الابتكار.

6. احتضن الغموض وتجنب الكمالية

تُبرز الحكايات التي يرويها ريس حقيقة قاسية: نادرًا ما تنجح الشركات الناشئة بسبب خطط منفذة بإتقان. في الواقع، الفشل غالبًا ما يكون بسبب بناء منتجات لا يحتاجها أحد. بدلاً من انتظار الكمال، يجب على رواد الأعمال اتخاذ خطوات جريئة، جمع بيانات من العالم الحقيقي، والتكيف بناءً على النتائج.

الدروس الرئيسية لرواد الأعمال

• فكر كعالم. تعامل مع ريادة الأعمال كعالم: كوّن فرضيات، اختبرها، وتكيف بناءً على النتائج.
• ابدأ صغيرًا، تعلم بسرعة. استخدم المنتج القابل للتطبيق MVP لجمع البيانات بسرعة دون إنفاق موارد غير ضرورية.
• قم بتقدير التعلم على الكفاءة. ركز على التعلم حول احتياجات العملاء بدلاً من تنفيذ ميزات غير ضرورية بإتقان.
• افشل بسرعة، وغيّر بذكاء. التكرار السريع يقلل الجهد الضائع ويزيد فرص النجاح.

ختامًا

توفر منهجية الشركة الناشئة المرنة التي قدمها إريك ريس طريقة منظمة للتعامل مع الفوضى والابتكار بثقة وتركيز. بالنسبة لأي شخص يطلق مشروعًا أو يقود الابتكار داخل منظمة، تُعد هذه المبادئ دليلًا للبقاء والتألق في وجه ظروف عدم التاكد.

سواء كنت مبتكرًا أو جزءًا من فريق ابتكار، حان الوقت للتفكير المرن، التصرف بجرأة، وإعطاء الأولوية للتعلم فوق كل شيء. قد لا يحدث النجاح بين ليلة وضحاها، لكن مع المثابرة والمرونة والتركيز، ستمنح مشروعك فرصة اكبر للنجاح وليكون مؤثرا.

Eric Ries, the brain behind The Lean Startup, has revolutionized the way entrepreneurs think about starting and growing businesses. During his talk at Google, Ries distilled lessons from his bestselling book, sharing a management blueprint for tackling uncertainty and creating successful startups. For entrepreneurs eager to maximize their chances of success, here are some transformative insights from The Lean Startup philosophy:

1. Redefining Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship isn’t confined to Silicon Valley garages. Ries challenges the stereotype that being an entrepreneur requires working in tech startups. Instead, entrepreneurship is about creating something new under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Whether in a massive corporation or a small team, if you're innovating with uncertainty, you're an entrepreneur. This mindset opens the entrepreneurial door to anyone ready to innovate, regardless of industry or company size.

2. Validated Learning as the Goal

The essence of entrepreneurship, according to Ries, is validated learning - discovering what your customers actually want, not just building what you assume they need. This method replaces traditional metrics of success, like efficiency or feature lists, with a focus on learning what works through direct customer interaction and feedback.

To achieve this, Ries advises utilizing the build-measure-learn feedback loop, a continuous cycle of:

• Building a minimal version of the product,
• Measuring customer response, and
• Learning whether to persevere or pivot.

3. The Power of the Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

Startups frequently burn time and resources building polished products nobody wants. Ries champions the concept of the MVP, a stripped-down version of a product containing only the core features needed to gather validated learning.

As Ries illustrated in his talk, instead of launching fully built software, startups can use techniques like landing pages or simple prototypes to gauge customer interest quickly and inexpensively.

4. Pivoting is Not Failure

One of Ries's most compelling ideas is the pivot - changing course based on customer feedback. Pivoting is not a sign of failure but a marker of agility. The secret to successful startups is reducing the time between pivots. Each pivot refines the product, drawing closer to what customers truly need.

For entrepreneurs, Ries stresses that a startup’s runway isn’t just about cash flow but about how many pivots are possible before running out of resources.

5. Innovation Accounting: Measure What Matters

Ries introduces innovation accounting, a system designed to measure progress in startups where traditional metrics fall short. Instead of vanity metrics (e.g., page views or social media buzz), entrepreneurs should track actionable metrics tied directly to customer behavior.

Ries emphasizes that knowing your baseline metrics, setting goals, and rigorously measuring progress creates accountability and clarity in an otherwise uncertain process.

6. Embrace Uncertainty, Avoid Perfectionism

Ries’s candid anecdotes underscore a harsh truth: startups rarely succeed because of perfectly executed plans. In fact, failure is often due to building products no one wants. Instead of waiting for perfection, entrepreneurs should act on their hypotheses, gather real-world data, and adapt based on the findings.

Key Takeaways for Entrepreneurs

• Think scientifically. Approach entrepreneurship like a scientist: form hypotheses, test them, and adapt based on results.
• Start small, learn fast. Use MVPs to gather data quickly without over-investing in unproven ideas.
• Value learning over efficiency. Prioritize learning about customers’ needs over perfect execution of unnecessary features.
• Fail fast, pivot smart. Iterating quickly reduces wasted effort and improves your odds of success.

Final remarks

The Lean Startup methodology, as shared by Eric Ries, empowers entrepreneurs to navigate the chaos of innovation with discipline and focus. For anyone launching a venture or driving innovation within an organization, these principles serve as a guide to not just survive, but thrive in uncertainty.

So, whether you’re a solo innovator or part of a larger team, it’s time to think lean, act boldly, and prioritize learning above all. Success might not happen overnight, but with persistence, agility, and focus, you’ll give your startup the best chance to make an impact.

هذا المقال هو قراءات في كتاب سايكولوجية المال، استكشاف تأثير السلوكيات النفسية على القرارات المالية.

يعتبر كتاب "سيكولوجية المال"(The Psychology of Money) لمورغان هاوسل من الكتب المشهورة حول سيكولوجيا المال. وهو يتعرض للطريقة التي يتفاعل بها الإنسان مع المال، مسلطًا الضوء على أن النجاح المالي ليس مجرد مسألة معادلات اقتصادية أو معلومات نظرية، بل هو انعكاس للسلوكيات والعواطف التي تحكم تعاملنا مع المال. يعرض الكتاب فكرة أن المال مرتبط بشكل وثيق بالسلوك البشري، وأن قراراتنا المالية تتأثر بعوامل نفسية عميقة، مما يجعل النجاح المالي يعتمد أكثر على التحكم بالعواطف والتصرفات الصحيحة.

أهمية السلوكيات المالية

يشير الكتاب إلى أن السلوك المالي هو العامل الأساسي الذي يحدد مدى نجاح الشخص في تحقيق أهدافه المالية. فالقرارات الاقتصادية الفردية لا تستند فقط إلى المعرفة النظرية، بل تتشكل من خلال الانضباط والصبر والتحكم في العواطف. قد يمتلك الشخص معرفة واسعة في مجالات الاقتصاد أو الاستثمار، لكنه إذا لم يستطع السيطرة على سلوكياته العاطفية، مثل الطمع أو الخوف، فلن يستطيع تحقيق النجاح المالي المرجو.

تأثير التجارب الشخصية على نظرتنا للمال

إحدى الأفكار المحورية التي يتناولها الكتاب هي أن تجاربنا الشخصية مع المال تشكل جزءًا كبيرًا من فهمنا لكيفية عمل المال والاقتصاد. فعلى سبيل المثال، الشخص الذي نشأ في بيئة اقتصادية غير مستقرة أو شهد أزمات مالية قد يتبنى نظرة حذرة تجاه الاستثمار أو المخاطرة المالية. على العكس، الشخص الذي نشأ في بيئة اقتصادية مزدهرة قد ينظر إلى المخاطر المالية كفرص للنمو.

هذا يعني أن تجارب الفرد المالية قد تشكل فهمه لأهمية المال وكيفية التعامل معه، مما يجعل سلوكيات الأشخاص تجاه المال تختلف بشكل كبير بناءً على تجاربهم السابقة.

لا أحد مجنون: السلوكيات التي تبدو غير منطقية

من الأفكار المثيرة في الكتاب أن "لا أحد مجنون" في اتخاذ القرارات المالية، حتى لو بدت تلك القرارات غير منطقية للآخرين. يعود السبب في ذلك إلى أن قراراتنا المالية مبنية على التجارب والمعتقدات الفردية التي مررنا بها. فما قد يبدو لك قرارًا غير عقلاني، مثل إنفاق الأموال على كماليات بينما الشخص مديون، قد يكون قرارًا معقولًا للشخص نفسه بناءً على تجربته وظروفه.

يفسر الكتاب أن الاختلاف في التجارب يجعلنا نتعامل مع المال بطرق مختلفة. فالقرارات المالية التي نتخذها اليوم هي نتيجة لمجموعة من العوامل النفسية والتجارب السابقة التي مررنا بها. هذا يعني أن ما هو منطقي لشخص ما قد يكون غير مفهوم لشخص آخر.

الحظ والمخاطرة في القرارات المالية

الحظ يلعب دورًا كبيرًا في النجاح المالي، ولكن المخاطرة كذلك لا تقل أهمية. يشدد الكتاب على أن الحظ والمخاطرة هما عنصران متلازمان في كل قرار مالي. فكلما ظهرت فرصة لتحقيق مكاسب مالية، تكون تلك الفرصة محملة بمخاطر محتملة. وهذا يفسر لماذا لا يمكن الاعتماد على الحظ وحده للوصول إلى الثروة، إذ إن إدارة المخاطر بشكل جيد هو العامل الحاسم.

على سبيل المثال، يقدم الكتاب قصة بيل غيتس الذي كان محظوظًا لالتحاقه بمدرسة امتلكت حاسوبًا في الستينات، وهي فرصة نادرة في ذلك الوقت. لكن الحظ وحده لم يكن كافيًا لنجاح غيتس؛ فكان عليه أن يتعلم ويجتهد ويستغل تلك الفرصة بشكل صحيح. في المقابل، هناك أشخاص آخرون شاركوا غيتس نفس الحظ لكنهم لم يحققوا نفس النجاح بسبب اتخاذهم قرارات مختلفة أو تعرضهم لمخاطر أكبر. فعلى سبيل المثال فان كنت إيفانز، صديق غيتس، قد توفي أثناء ممارسته لرياضة تسلق الجبال، ما يوضح أن المخاطرة دائمًا ما تكون حاضرة في كل قرار. في النهاية، الحظ والمخاطرة مرتبطان بشكل وثيق؛ قد يصيبك الحظ في فرصة مالية، لكن عليك أن تكون على استعداد لتحمل المخاطر المرتبطة بها.

العلاقة بين المعرفة والسلوك

من الدروس المهمة في الكتاب أن المعرفة الاقتصادية وحدها ليست كافية لتحقيق النجاح المالي. يمكن لأي شخص أن يتعلم نظريًا كيف يستثمر أو يدير أمواله، لكن بدون التحكم في السلوكيات وتطبيق تلك المعرفة بحكمة، تصبح تلك المعرفة غير ذات قيمة. على سبيل المثال، معرفة أهمية الاستثمار طويل الأجل لا تفيد إذا لم يكن الشخص قادرًا على الالتزام بهذا النوع من الاستثمار بسبب التأثر بالعواطف أو اتخاذ قرارات متهورة.

الخلاصة: سلوكياتك أهم من معرفتك

الرسالة الأساسية التي يقدمها الكتاب هي أن السلوكيات المالية هي العامل الأهم في تحقيق النجاح المالي. لا يكفي أن نمتلك معرفة واسعة في الاقتصاد أو الاستثمار، بل يجب أن نتحكم في تصرفاتنا وعواطفنا ونطور سلوكيات مالية صحية. السيطرة على النفس، والصبر، والقدرة على اتخاذ قرارات مستدامة هي ما يؤدي في النهاية إلى النجاح المالي.

من خلال فهم هذه الدروس، يصبح من الممكن إعادة تقييم علاقتنا مع المال وتحسين سلوكياتنا لتحقيق أهدافنا المالية بشكل أكثر استدامة ونجاحًا. المال ليس مجرد أرقام، بل هو مرآة لسلوكياتنا وتصرفاتنا اليومية، وفهمنا لهذه السلوكيات هو مفتاح النجاح المالي.

This article contains reflections on The Psychology of Money, a book exploring the impact of psychological behaviours on financial decisions.

The book The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel is widely recognized as one of the most influential works on the psychology of money. It delves into how humans interact with money, emphasizing that financial success is not simply a matter of economic equations or theoretical knowledge, but rather a reflection of behaviours and emotions that shape how we manage money. The book highlights how closely money is tied to human behaviour, with financial decisions deeply influenced by psychological factors, making success more dependent on emotional control and sound decision-making.

The Importance of Financial Behaviours

Housel argues that financial behaviour is the key factor determining whether a person achieves their financial goals. Economic decisions are not purely based on theoretical knowledge but are shaped by discipline, patience, and emotional control. Even if a person possesses extensive knowledge in economics or investment, if they cannot manage emotional behaviours like greed or fear, they will struggle to achieve their financial objectives.

How Personal Experiences Shape Our Perception of Money

One of the central ideas in the book is that personal experiences with money significantly shape our understanding of how money and the economy work. For instance, someone who grew up in an unstable financial environment or witnessed financial crises may adopt a cautious approach to investing or taking financial risks. On the other hand, someone raised in a prosperous economic environment might view financial risks as opportunities for growth.

This suggests that an individual's financial experiences influence their understanding of money's importance and how they handle it, leading to considerable variations in people’s behaviours toward money based on their past experiences.

No One Is Crazy: Seemingly Irrational Behaviours

An intriguing concept in the book is that “no one is crazy” when making financial decisions, even if those decisions appear irrational to others. This is because financial decisions are based on the unique experiences and beliefs we each hold. What might seem like an irrational choice to one person, such as spending money on luxuries while being in debt, could be a logical decision for someone else given their experiences and circumstances.

The book explains that differences in experiences lead us to interact with money in different ways. The financial decisions we make today are shaped by a variety of psychological factors and past experiences, meaning what is logical to one person may not make sense to another.

Luck and Risk in Financial Decisions

Luck plays a significant role in financial success, but risk is equally important. Housel emphasizes that luck and risk are intertwined in every financial decision. Whenever an opportunity for financial gain arises, it is also accompanied by potential risks. This explains why relying solely on luck is not a dependable way to achieve wealth — managing risk is crucial.

For example, the book tells the story of Bill Gates, who was fortunate to attend a school with a computer in the 1960s, a rare opportunity at that time. However, luck alone was not enough for Gates’ success; he needed to learn, work hard, and seize the opportunity correctly. In contrast, others who shared similar luck did not achieve the same success, often due to different choices or higher exposure to risk. An example of this is Gates' friend, Kent Evans, who died in a mountain climbing accident, illustrating that risk is always present in every decision. Ultimately, luck and risk are closely connected—you may encounter luck in a financial opportunity, but you must also be prepared to handle the associated risks.

The Relationship Between Knowledge and Behaviour

One of the book's key lessons is that economic knowledge alone is not enough to achieve financial success. While anyone can theoretically learn how to invest or manage money, without the ability to control behaviour and apply that knowledge wisely, it becomes meaningless. For instance, knowing the importance of long-term investment is useless if a person cannot commit to it due to emotional influences or impulsive decision-making.

Conclusion: Behaviour Is More Important Than Knowledge

The core message of the book is that financial behaviour is the most critical factor in achieving financial success. It is not enough to have extensive knowledge of economics or investing; one must also control their emotions, develop healthy financial habits, and make sustainable decisions. Self-discipline, patience, and the ability to make sound financial decisions are what ultimately lead to financial success.

By understanding these lessons, we can reassess our relationship with money and improve our behaviours to achieve more sustainable and successful financial outcomes. Money is not just numbers — it is a reflection of our behaviours and daily decisions, and understanding these behaviours is the key to financial success.

شهدت النسخة لعام 2024 من منتدى التجارة العالمي لمنظمة التجارة العالمية (WTO)، الذي انعقد في مقر المنظمة بجنيف في الفترة من 10 إلى 13 سبتمبر، حضور 4400 مشارك وأكثر من 600 متحدث في حدث كان الأكبر من نوعه. وقد ركز المنتدى على موضوع "إعادة العولمة: جعل التجارة أكثر شمولاً"، وهو ما انعكس في نحو 140 جلسة ناقشت كيف يمكن إعادة تنظيم التجارة العالمية لخدمة الفئات المهمشة، والدول الأقل نموًا (LDCs)، وتضييق الفجوة الرقمية المتزايدة.

إعادة العولمة وسط التوترات الجيوسياسية

افتتح المنتدى بجلسة نقاشية رفيعة المستوى بعنوان "إعادة العولمة: التجارة في عالم جيوسياسي". وتناول المتحدثون الرئيسيون، بمن فيهم المدير العام لمنظمة التجارة العالمية نغوزي أوكونجو إيويالا وكبير الاقتصاديين بالمنظمة رالف أوسا، تزايد التوتر بين التجارة العالمية والاهتمامات الأمنية الوطنية. وتمحور النقاش، الذي أدارته بيتر فانهام من مجلة فورتشن، حول كيفية الحفاظ على التجارة الدولية كأداة للتنمية، خاصة في الجنوب العالمي، في ظل هيمنة المخاوف الأمنية.

دافعت أوكونجو إيويالا بحماس عن دور التجارة كآلية لبناء السلام وخلق فرص العمل وتعزيز التنمية، خاصةً في المناطق الفقيرة من العالم. وأكدت أن منظمة التجارة العالمية يجب أن تواصل التكيف مع التحديات الجيوسياسية المعاصرة، مع تعزيز التعددية. من جهته، أكد رالف أوسا على الحاجة إلى وضع قواعد تجارية عالمية أكثر تعقيدًا تعكس البيئة الجيوسياسية الحالية دون التخلي عن مبدأ الشمولية.

عصر التحول الرقمي: أدوات وتقنيات جديدة

شهد اليوم الأول أيضًا الكشف عن قاعدة بيانات منظمة التجارة العالمية للمخاوف التجارية، وهي أداة تهدف إلى تعزيز الشفافية من خلال توفير الوصول إلى المعلومات حول أكثر من 1700 قضية تجارية تمت مناقشتها عبر هيئات المنظمة. تُعتبر هذه المبادرة خطوة حاسمة في تعزيز المساواة، خاصةً بالنسبة للدول النامية التي قد تواجه صعوبات في التعامل مع القواعد التجارية المعقدة.

ناقشت الجلسات المتعلقة بالتجارة الرقمية الأهمية المتزايدة للتقنيات الرقمية في تعزيز التجارة الشاملة. وتناولت إحدى الجلسات إمكانيات الذكاء الاصطناعي في الزراعة وكيفية تمكين المزارعين الصغار وتعزيز التنمية الزراعية المستدامة. كما تم تسليط الضوء على إمكانيات الحوسبة الكمية في تعزيز التجارة العالمية، مع تقدم الصين في هذا المجال.

إدماج الأشخاص المهمشين: أولوية جديدة

في 11 سبتمبر، شهد المنتدى جلسة غير مسبوقة حول إدماج الأشخاص المهمشين في التجارة، وهي أول جهد مشترك بين منظمة التجارة العالمية ومؤتمر الأمم المتحدة للتجارة والتنمية (UNCTAD) ومنظمة العمل الدولية (ILO) والمركز التجاري الدولي (ITC) لمعالجة هذه القضية. يشكل ذوو الإعاقة 15% من سكان العالم، يعيش 80% منهم في الدول النامية، مما يستدعي بذل جهود أكبر لضمان وصولهم المتساوي إلى الفرص التجارية.

ركزت الجلسة على التجارة الرقمية والتقنيات المساعدة، مما قدم خارطة طريق لكيفية استخدام التجارة العالمية في تفكيك الحواجز التي تواجهها الفئات المهمشة.

دور التجارة في تقليل الفوارق العالمية

شهد اليوم الثاني خطابًا رئيسيًا من أستاذ الاقتصاد في جامعة هارفارد جيسون فورمان، حيث أكد على الدور الحيوي الذي لعبته العولمة في تقليل الفوارق الاقتصادية العالمية. أوضح فورمان أنه خلال الـ 25 عامًا الماضية، أسهمت العولمة في رفع أكثر من مليار شخص من الفقر المدقع وتحسين مؤشرات التنمية البشرية مثل العمر المتوقع ومعدل الأمية وصحة الأمهات.

ومع ذلك، أقر فورمان بأن العولمة تواجه انتقادات، خاصة في الدول المتقدمة، حيث أصبحت الحمائية والتوترات الجيوسياسية تلقي بظلال من الشك على فوائدها. استشهد فورمان بتشبيه مؤثر للتجارة باعتبارها "آلة تحول فول الصويا إلى سيارات"، متحديًا المفاهيم الخاطئة حول العولمة، ومبينًا أن التجارة، مثل الابتكار التكنولوجي، تعتبر محركًا رئيسيًا لتحقيق الرخاء للجميع.

وجهات نظر الشباب: مستقبل التجارة الشاملة

اختتم منتدى التجارة العالمي لعام 2024 في 13 سبتمبر بجلسة خاصة ركزت على رؤية الشباب لمستقبل التجارة والشمولية. تميز الحدث الأخير رفيع المستوى بمشاركة رواد أعمال ونشطاء شباب من جميع أنحاء العالم، الذين شاركوا أفكارهم حول كيفية إعادة العولمة لخلق اقتصاد عالمي أكثر استدامة وشمولية.

تحدثت ليلي فيسيرو من جامعة هارفارد عن التحديات التي تواجهها المؤسسات متعددة الأطراف مثل منظمة التجارة العالمية عندما تصبح هدفًا لانتقادات واسعة ترتبط بقضايا وطنية أوسع. وأشارت إلى الحاجة إلى زيادة إشراك الدول النامية في النقاشات التجارية لضمان تحقيق نمو أخضر وشامل. وأكدت ستيفاني إيرام أكرماه من مركز النمو الأخضر على الصعوبات التي تواجهها الدول الأفريقية في الامتثال للمعايير البيئية التي وضعتها الدول المتقدمة، مشددة على أهمية توحيد منظمة التجارة العالمية للمعايير العالمية لتلبية احتياجات الجنوب العالمي.

ناقشت بوني تشيو من استشارات الاستثمار الاجتماعي قضايا عدم المساواة بين الجنسين والفجوة الرقمية باعتبارها حواجز أمام التجارة الشاملة، داعية إلى وضع مؤشرات أداء جديدة تركز على الرفاه الاجتماعي والبيئي، وليس فقط على النمو الاقتصادي. كما شدد جيراردو ماتيو من "غلاس" على الحاجة إلى توفير شفافية أكبر للشركات الصغيرة في الوصول إلى أسواق المشتريات العامة، مؤكدًا على الدور التحويلي للذكاء الاصطناعي وتقنيات البلوكشين والتجارة الإلكترونية في كل من القطاعين العام والخاص.

من جانبه، تحدث سيمون بيرثود من تحالف المناخ السويسري عن التأثير غير المتناسب لتغير المناخ على الأجيال الشابة. وانتقد الاعتماد المفرط على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي كمعيار أساسي للنجاح الاقتصادي، داعيًا إلى تبني نماذج أعمال بديلة مثل التعاونيات التي تكون أكثر مرونة وشمولية.

خلاصة وتوصيات

أكد منتدى التجارة العالمي لعام 2024، من خلال برنامجه المكثف على مدى أربعة أيام، أن التجارة العالمية تملك القدرة على أن تكون قوة تحويلية للخير. ومع ذلك، فإن تحقيق هذا الإمكان يعتمد على اتخاذ خطوات ملموسة لضمان وصول هذه المبادرات إلى أكثر الفئات فقرًا وتهميشًا في العالم. بدون هذه الجهود المستهدفة، ستظل أهداف الشمولية والاستدامة مجرد طموحات.

إن فرصة التفاعل مع العقول المبدعة مثل تانيا تي وهينوا، وسيمون بيرثود، وجيراردو ماتيو، ودواء عبد المطع، ورودريغو كوريا مينوزو كانت شهادة على الجهود العالمية المبذولة لجعل التجارة أكثر شمولًا. هؤلاء هم الأفراد الذين يعملون بلا كلل لدفع التغيير، ويسعون إلى جعل السياسات التجارية أكثر عدلاً وإنصافًا. لم نكن فقط نتبادل الأفكار؛ كنا نبني جسورًا – عبر الثقافات والصناعات والمجتمعات – لخلق عالم أكثر عدلاً وازدهارًا.

يعد منتدى التجارة العالمي لعام 2024 تذكيرًا ملهمًا بأن إعادة العولمة ليست مجرد مسألة نمو اقتصادي، بل هي أيضًا مسألة مرونة واستدامة، وضمان أن فوائد التجارة تصل إلى الجميع. الوقت للعمل هو الآن – من خلال التعاون والابتكار والسياسات التجارية الشاملة، يمكننا ضمان استمرار التجارة العالمية كمحرك قوي للنمو والتنمية والازدهار المشترك.

توصيات لقادة الأعمال

في ضوء المناقشات التي جرت في المنتدى، ظهرت العديد من التوصيات القابلة للتنفيذ لأصحاب الأعمال والقادة الذين يسعون للتكيف مع مشهد التجارة العالمية المتطور والمعقد:

1. تعزيز التعددية: يجب على منظمة التجارة العالمية أن تؤكد نفسها باعتبارها المنتدى الرئيسي لحوكمة التجارة العالمية، وضمان أن المخاوف الأمنية الوطنية لا تعطل مبادئ التجارة المفتوحة. سيكون ذلك حاسمًا للشركات التي تعمل في أسواق تزداد تجزئة.
2. توضيح استثناءات الأمن الوطني: الوضوح حول كيفية تطبيق استثناءات الأمن الوطني في الاتفاقيات التجارية ضروري لضمان مناخ استثماري مستقر. الشفافية والتنبؤية ضروريان لاتخاذ قرارات تجارية سليمة.
3. التعاون الإقليمي: تشجيع اتفاقيات التجارة الإقليمية التي تدمج أحكام الأمن الوطني يمكن أن يساعد الدول في معالجة المخاوف الأمنية مع الحفاظ على الأسواق المفتوحة.
4. الشمولية الرقمية المدفوعة بالتكنولوجيا: الاستفادة من التقنيات الرقمية، مثل الذكاء الاصطناعي والحوسبة الكمية، ستكون حاسمة لجعل التجارة أكثر شمولاً، خصوصًا للفئات المهمشة.
5. الانخراط مع الجنوب العالمي: نظرًا لأن الجنوب العالمي يظهر كلاعب حاسم في تشكيل مستقبل التجارة، يجب على الشركات أن تنظر في كيفية مواءمة أعمالها مع مبادرات التنمية المستدامة والشاملة في هذه المناطق.
6. تحفيز الشباب نحو الاستدامة والشمولية: يجب على الشركات الناشئة ورواد الأعمال الشباب أن يعطوا الأولوية لبناء مؤسسات تجارية لا تهدف فقط إلى الربح، بل تسهم أيضًا في تحقيق الاستدامة البيئية والشمولية الاجتماعية. باعتبارهم قادة المستقبل، لدى الشباب القدرة الفريدة على ابتكار حلول تعالج التحديات العالمية مثل التغير المناخي، عدم المساواة، والتجارة العادلة. ينبغي أن تركز الشركات على تبني ممارسات مستدامة وضمان أن تكون أنشطتها مفيدة للفئات المهمشة، مما يخلق تأثيرًا إيجابيًا على المجتمع والبيئة.

منصة (استلهمها) "Inspireit"

بالنظر إلى الأفكار القيمة التي تم تبادلها في منتدى التجارة العالمي 2024، أصبح من الواضح أن ريادة الأعمال تلعب دورًا حاسمًا في تعزيز التجارة العالمية الشاملة والمستدامة. ولتقديم الدعم لرواد الأعمال في رحلتهم، نعلن بفخر عن إطلاق منصة inspireit.io – وهي منصة مبتكرة مصممة لربط رواد الأعمال بالخبراء والمستثمرين من جميع أنحاء العالم.

تهدف inspireit.io إلى إزالة الحواجز، ومنح رواد الأعمال إمكانية الوصول إلى الخبرات والمعرفة والتمويل اللازم للنجاح. سواء كنت قائد أعمال متمرسًا، أو رائد أعمال مبتدئًا، أو مستثمرًا يسعى لدعم الفكرة الناجحة التالية، توفر منصتنا مساحة ديناميكية للتعاون والنمو.

تتوفر المنصة حاليًا في نسختها التجريبية، وندعو الخبراء ورواد الأعمال والمستثمرين للانضمام إلينا، لاستكشاف المنصة، وتقديم ملاحظاتهم. ستساعد آراؤكم في تشكيل inspireit.io لتصبح أداة قوية لمجتمع ريادة الأعمال العالمي.

انضم إلينا اليوم على inspireit.io وكن جزءًا من الجهود التي تمكّن رواد الأعمال من دفع الابتكار والشمولية حول العالم!

The 2024 edition of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Public Forum, held at WTO headquarters in Geneva from 10 to 13 September, brought together 4,400 participants and over 600 speakers in a record-breaking event. The theme of this year’s forum, “Re-globalization: Making Trade More Inclusive,” resonated across nearly 140 sessions that explored how trade can be re-globalized to serve marginalized populations, least-developed countries (LDCs), and those facing a widening digital divide.

Re-globalization Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The forum opened with a high-profile panel titled "Re-globalization: Trade in a Geopoliticized World." Key speakers, including WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Chief Economist Ralph Ossa, addressed the increasing tension between global trade and national security concerns. The panel, moderated by Peter Vanham of Fortune, explored how international trade can remain a vehicle for development, particularly in the Global South, while navigating a landscape dominated by security concerns.

Okonjo-Iweala passionately defended trade as a mechanism for peace-building, job creation, and development, especially for the world’s poorer regions. She emphasized that the WTO must continue to adapt, embracing multilateralism to address contemporary geopolitical challenges. Ralph Ossa reinforced the idea, calling for more nuanced global trade rules that reflect the current geopolitical environment, without abandoning the principle of inclusivity.

The discussion also highlighted the need for WTO reform, particularly in clarifying how national security exceptions are applied within trade agreements. Middle powers such as Colombia and Norway were identified as potential leaders in pushing for reforms that could address critical global issues like climate change, food security, and industrial policies.

The Digital Age: New Tools and Technologies

Day 1 also saw the unveiling of the WTO Trade Concerns Database, a tool aimed at enhancing transparency by providing access to information on more than 1,700 trade concerns across WTO bodies. This initiative is seen as pivotal in leveling the playing field, especially for developing economies that may struggle with complex trade regulations. The database will empower stakeholders to make informed decisions and resolve trade disputes more effectively, contributing to a more equitable trading environment.

Discussions on digital trade further underscored its growing significance in inclusive trade. A session on AI in agriculture explored how artificial intelligence can empower smallholder farmers and promote sustainable agricultural development. Doaa Abdel Motaal, a Senior Counsellor at the WTO, highlighted the transformative potential of quantum computing in advancing global trade, with China leading in this technological frontier. The integration of AI and quantum technologies into the global trading system will be critical in helping developing economies participate in the new digital economy.

Disability Inclusion: A New Priority

On 11 September, a session on disability inclusion in trade broke new ground, signaling the first collaborative effort by the WTO, UNCTAD, the International Labour Organization (ILO), and the International Trade Centre (ITC) to address this issue. With 15% of the world’s population living with disabilities—80% of whom are in developing economies—there was unanimous agreement that more needs to be done to ensure equitable access to global trade opportunities.

The session’s focus on digital trade and assistive technologies provided a blueprint for how global trade can be leveraged to dismantle barriers faced by persons with disabilities. Dr. Mariangela Linoci and Dr. Amrita Bahri called for stronger data collection efforts to shape more inclusive policies, while emphasizing the need for international collaboration among governments, businesses, and organizations. The dialogue marked a significant step toward making trade a tool for inclusivity in line with the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The Role of Trade in Reducing Global Inequality

Day 2 featured a keynote address by Jason Furman, a Harvard economics professor, who emphasized the crucial role globalization has played in reducing global inequality. Furman pointed out that over the past 25 years, globalization has lifted more than a billion people out of extreme poverty and improved key human development indicators such as life expectancy, literacy, and maternal health.

However, Furman acknowledged that globalization is under attack, especially in developed countries, where rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions have cast doubt on its benefits. Furman’s compelling analogy—comparing trade to a machine that turns soybeans into cars—challenged misconceptions around globalization, showing that trade, like technological innovation, is a driver of prosperity for all.

Youth Perspective: The Future of Inclusive Trade

The 2024 Public Forum concluded on 13 September with a special focus on the youth perspective and their vision for the future of trade and inclusiveness. The final high-level event featured young entrepreneurs and activists from around the world, who shared their ideas on how re-globalization can create a more sustainable, inclusive global economy.

Lili Vessereau from Harvard University spoke about the challenges multilateral institutions like the WTO face in becoming scapegoats for broader national issues. She highlighted the need for developing countries to be more involved in trade discussions to ensure green growth through inclusivity. Stephanie Eyram Akrumah of the Centre for Green Growth emphasized the difficulties African nations face in complying with environmental standards set by developed countries, and the importance of ensuring the WTO unifies global standards to better incorporate the needs of the Global South.

Bonnie Chiu of the Social Investment Consultancy discussed gender inequality and the digital divide as barriers to inclusive trade, calling for new key performance indicators focused not only on economic growth but also on societal and environmental well-being. Gerardo Matteo of GLASS underscored the need for small businesses to have transparent access to public procurement markets and stressed the transformative role of AI, blockchain, and e-commerce in both public and private sectors.

Simon Berthoud of Climate Alliance Switzerland addressed the disproportionate impact of climate change on younger generations. He criticized the outdated reliance on GDP as the primary metric for economic success, advocating for alternative business models such as cooperatives that are more resilient and inclusive.

Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala reminded the audience that the WTO, now celebrating its 30^th anniversary, was founded with the goal of enhancing living standards, creating jobs, and promoting sustainable development. Okonjo-Iweala also noted the WTO’s continued work on environment-related initiatives, such as the Fisheries Subsidies Agreement, as proof of the organization's commitment to balancing economic growth with environmental stewardship.

In her closing remarks, Okonjo-Iweala encouraged young people to continue pushing for sustainable and responsible trade practices, stating, “We have a lot of work to do, but I am inspired by what you’ve shared today.

Finally

The WTO Public Forum, with its extensive four-day program, addressed a diverse range of pressing global issues. Discussions ranged from the potential of AI in trade to the broader integration of marginalized groups, including people with disabilities, women, and economically disadvantaged communities, into global trade systems. Alongside sessions on sustainability, digital trade, and equitable growth, the forum emphasized that global trade holds the potential to be a transformative force for good. However, this potential can only be realized through concrete actions that ensure these initiatives genuinely reach and uplift the world’s poorest and most marginalized populations. Without such targeted efforts, the objectives of inclusivity and sustainability will remain aspirational rather than achievable.

The chance to engage with bright minds such as Tania Te Whenua, Simon Berthoud, Gerardo Mateo, Doaa Abdel Motaal, and Rodrigo Correa Minuzzo was a testament to the global effort underway to make trade more inclusive. These are the individuals working tirelessly to push for change, striving to make trade policies more just and equitable. We were not just exchanging ideas; we were building bridges—across cultures, industries, and communities—to create a fairer, more prosperous world.

The 2024 WTO Public Forum was an inspiring reminder that re-globalization is not just about economic growth. It’s about resilience, sustainability, and ensuring that the benefits of trade reach everyone.

The time to act is now—through cooperation, innovation, and inclusive trade policies, we can ensure that global trade continues to be a powerful engine for growth, development, and shared prosperity.

Recommendations for Business Leaders In light of the discussions at the forum, several actionable recommendations emerged for entrepreneurs and business leaders seeking to navigate the complex and evolving landscape of global trade:

1. Strengthening Multilateralism: The WTO must assert itself as the primary forum for global trade governance, ensuring that national security concerns do not disrupt the principles of open trade. This will be critical for businesses operating in increasingly fragmented markets.
2. Defining Security Exceptions: Clarity around how security exceptions are applied in trade agreements is essential for ensuring a stable investment climate. Transparency and predictability are vital for business decision-making.
3. Regional Cooperation: Encouraging regional trade agreements that integrate national security provisions can help countries address security concerns while maintaining open markets. This is especially relevant for businesses involved in global supply chains.
4. Digital and AI-Driven Inclusivity: Leveraging digital technologies, such as AI and quantum computing, will be crucial in making trade more inclusive, particularly for marginalized communities. Entrepreneurs should explore how these technologies can help them access new markets and streamline operations.
5. Engaging the Global South: With the Global South emerging as a critical player in shaping the future of trade, businesses should consider how they can align with sustainable and inclusive development initiatives in these regions.
6. For youth: Embrace Sustainability and Inclusivity as Core Business Values: Focus on building businesses that not only drive profit but also contribute to environmental sustainability and social inclusivity. As future leaders, young entrepreneurs have the unique ability to create solutions that address global challenges such as climate change, inequality, and fair trade. Prioritize sustainable practices and ensure your business benefits marginalized communities, making a positive impact on both people and the planet.

Inspireit Platform

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a leading destination for businesses looking to innovate, embrace AI, and thrive in an entrepreneurial environment. This surge in investor interest is reflected in the country's improved rankings on global business and investment attractiveness indexes.

The UAE actively fosters a business-friendly environment through a variety of incentives and streamlined processes:

1. 15-Minute Business Setup: Streamlined services through the Basher platform allow for quick and easy business registration, eliminating the need for multiple visits to government offices.

2. 100% Foreign Ownership: Following legal reforms, foreign investors can now fully own and establish companies throughout the UAE, without requiring a local Emirati partner.

3. 40+ Flexible Free Zones: The UAE boasts a wide range of free zones offering various benefits, including 100% foreign ownership and the freedom to choose the most suitable location for your business needs.

4. Diverse Investment Opportunities: With over 2,000 economic activities open for foreign investment, the UAE caters to a broad spectrum of industries, from trade and agriculture to technology and education.

5. Multiple Business Structures: The UAE offers various legal structures for companies, including public and private joint-stock companies, limited liability companies, and more.

6. No Local Agent Requirement: Foreign companies can now set up branches and operate in the UAE without the need for a local agent, simplifying the process and fostering transparency.

7. Full Control for Investors: Foreign investors have complete control over their company shares and board composition, with no mandatory Emirati involvement unless specified by law.

8. No Minimum Capital Requirement: Limited liability companies are not bound by a minimum capital requirement, offering greater flexibility for startups and entrepreneurs.

9. Tax-Free Environment: The UAE boasts a zero personal income tax rate and allows for full profit repatriation, making it an attractive location for maximizing returns.

10. Golden Residency Visas: The UAE offers long-term residency visas for investors, entrepreneurs, and skilled professionals, enabling them to establish businesses, live, and work in the country.

11. Access to Skilled Talent: The UAE's flexible labor policies and focus on fostering talent create an environment rich in skilled professionals across various sectors.

12. Low Trade Tariffs: With government tariffs ranging from 0 to 5%, the UAE is a global center for trade, ranking highly in both global and regional re-exports.

13. Industrial Sector Incentives: The UAE provides a comprehensive package of incentives for industrial and technology companies, including competitive financing, strategic tariffs, customs exemptions, and support programs.

By fostering innovation, offering ease of doing business, and providing a wealth of incentives, the UAE has cemented its position as a global hub for business and investment.

Qatar’s flourishing construction sector is projected at an impressive QAR210.01bn ($57.68bn) this year, industry analysts revealed, with forecasts predicting an increase to QAR325.03bn ($89.27bn) in the near future.

Global research firm, Mordor Intelligence, anticipates the Gulf nation’s construction industry to demonstrate a strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.13% by 2028.

The newly released study emphasised the contributing factors to the thriving market, which include a blend of commercial, residential, industrial, and infrastructure projects, along with energy and utility developments.

The researchers highlighted that the country’s reliance on European suppliers and manufacturers for mechanical, electrical, and plumbing materials has spurred the search for alternate providers due to European supply shortages.

This has inevitably impacted pricing and led to reconsiderations of existing contracts and purchasing orders.

“For mechanical, electrical, and plumbing items, Qatari contractors, are particularly dependent on European suppliers and manufacturers; hence, a European supply deficit forced Qatari contractors to look for alternate suppliers”, the report stated.

“This affected the prices of the goods and raised questions about the cancellation of purchase orders and the termination of existing contracts.”

However, the country’s relentless investments and projects in the past years paved the way for it to bounce back.

World Cup impact

Despite the challenges, Qatar’s successful hosting of last year’s World Cup has had an influence on the industry, setting the stage for future major infrastructural and industrial projects.

This year, Qatar is set to dedicate QAR9.83bn ($2bn) towards the ambitious 2050 transportation master plan, underlining the nation’s commitment to improving infrastructure and expanding its leisure industry.

The nation’s track record of mass projects, ranging from the Doha metro, universities, healthcare facilities, museums, to entirely new cities like Msheireb and Lusail, bears testament to the growing strength of its construction market.

This assertion is further reinforced by the impressive array of stadiums that were built for the region’s first World Cup tournament.

In addition, the government’s significant investment of QAR53.9bn ($14.80bn) for infrastructural advancements, as outlined in the 2021 budget, demonstrates the critical role of state authorities in bolstering the regional construction sector.

“The government aims to develop infrastructure and diversify the economy by moving away from its dependence on the oil and gas sector. In efforts to diversify the economy, Qatar has opened economic free zones attracting companies from around the world,” state the analysts.

The recent implementation of laws governing public-private partnerships (PPPs) is anticipated to lure private sector investments in infrastructure, education, and healthcare projects, thereby driving industry growth over the forecast period.

Source: Doha News

Reports, newspapers, and international economic magazines suggest that the major economies in the world will experience a slowdown in growth. According to a published report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the world is heading towards a long-term recession unless monetary and fiscal policies that control some advanced economies change quickly. The World Bank also warned that the global economy for 2023 is at risk, with high inflation rates and interest rates, decreased investment, and ongoing war in Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects economic growth to decline to 2.7% in 2023 compared to 3.2% in 2022. This global slowdown could lead to a decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) that is less than what it was before the coronavirus pandemic and will cost the world more than $17 trillion in lost productivity. The Fund says that growth expectations for 2023 will be the lowest since 2001. The Chief Economist at the Fund, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, warned in statements to the British Financial Times that there is a possibility that global growth could drop to less than 1% in 2023.

The major economies of the United States, Europe, and China are experiencing low growth expectations. According to the World Bank, the United States will face a growth rate of no more than 1% in 2023, while growth in Europe is expected to approach zero, and China's growth is expected to be no more than 4.3% (Figure 1). It is also expected that the unemployment rate in the USA will be around 3%, with a continuing increase in the current account deficit to more than $800 billion in 2023.

Although the discussion is about how all regions will be affected by this recession, the alarm bells are ringing louder for developing countries, especially with the worsening problem of debt. The report also cites another reason for economic concern, with the increasing impacts of climate change, where losses and damages are increasing within weak economies that lack the financial resources to deal with disasters.

The UNCTAD warns that excessive monetary tightening and insufficient financial support could expose the economies of developing countries to further consecutive crises. It is expected that middle-income countries in Latin America and low-income countries in Africa will suffer the effects of this slowdown, with the possibility that the problem of debt default will surface.

The Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, warned, in her statements, that the global economy will witness difficult conditions in 2023, as economic stagnation and continued high levels of inflation will be its most prominent feature, and this is at a time when its engines, that is, the American, Chinese and European economies, have witnessed a significant slowdown since the last quarter in the last year.

These warnings align with other bleak forecasts released by a number of international financial institutions and European central banks, which also see the likelihood of a global economic recession very possible in 2023.

The billionaire and American investor Stanley Miller, who gained fame in 1992 after betting on the collapse of the British pound and making gains of up to ten billion dollars, says "If we don't see an economic recession in 2023, it will be like a miracle," because the expected growth scenario for next year will be 2.4% at best and could slow down to 1.2%, the same level of growth that existed during the global financial crisis in 2008.

War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is weighing heavily on the global economy, particularly in regards to grain supplies. The outbreak of war has led to higher prices for food and fertilizers, harming importers and prompting many countries to impose restrictions on exports. Around 345 million people are at immediate risk of severe food insecurity as a result. According to the World Food Programme, over 828 million people around the world go to bed hungry every night. The countries most affected are those that depend on food imports from Ukraine and Russia, amounting to 48 countries, mostly low-income countries[1].

Source: International Monetary Fund data.

Inflation rates and global debt

Inflation is considered a global phenomenon that has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and the disruption of global supply chains following COVID-19 closures in China. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects consumer prices to rise to record levels in emerging and developing economies, reaching 10% in 2022 before dropping slightly to around 8.1% in 2023. Although the gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded $100 trillion for the first time in 2022, growth is threatened to come to a halt according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) in Britain. Also, raising interest rates will increase the burden of new and existing loans, lead to a decline in overall demand and investment, and affect productive sectors and the labor market. It is expected that households and businesses around the world will face strong economic difficulties due to rising commodity prices, especially food and energy, and with continued central bank interest rate hikes to curb inflation, as well as supply chain crises and rising energy and food prices due to the war in Ukraine. In this context, statistics from the IMF show that Arab countries in the Middle East, Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America are suffering from higher inflation rates than other countries.

In light of these circumstances, the issue of debt reemerges, as the IMF warns of the worsening global debt, which has exceeded 303 trillion dollars, or the equivalent of 350% of the global GDP. This will result in more cases of default in poor countries, with Sri Lanka and Lebanon serving as examples of this deficit.

According to World Bank data, the external debts of low- and middle-income developing countries exceeded 9.2 trillion dollars by the end of 2021, which is more than twice its value a decade ago.

Global Trade and Oil

The decline in global economic growth means that global trade is likely to decline, which will affect foreign investment and thus emerging economies. This is not to mention the possibility of trade wars between industrialized countries and their repercussions on emerging economies. Regarding the impact of the recession on the economies of countries, it is related to the degree of openness of these economies to the global economy. The more open they are, the more vulnerable they are to the consequences of the economic crisis. Moreover, countries that rely on oil exports in their economies are more vulnerable to the effects of the economic crisis, especially when it comes to oil prices.

After oil prices witnessed a significant increase due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, reaching its highest rate in 2022, which is around $100 per barrel, it is expected to decrease during 2023 to below $100 and is expected to decrease further if the economic recession continues, reaching below $70 per barrel by 2025. In general, oil-producing countries remain better off than other countries during the recession period due to the oil revenues that enable them to implement programs to support various sectors to counter the effects of the recession.

Arab Countries' Economies

While the major economies of the world are experiencing a slowdown in growth, including China, the European Union, and the United States, some unexpected Arab countries are achieving a breakthrough in economic growth. Comparing economic growth data for the Arab region in 2022 and 2023 reveals significant disparities in growth expectations between the two years, with clear variations among countries.

In 2022, several Arab countries, especially those in the Gulf Cooperation Council, Egypt, and Iraq, experienced relatively high growth, likely due to the post-COVID-19 recovery period. However, in 2023, significant changes are expected due to recent developments, as previously discussed.

Some countries, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, especially Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, are expected to experience a recession. On the other hand, other countries will experience growth at different rates, particularly Libya, which is expected to lead Arab countries in achieving an unexpected breakthrough in growth, with a growth rate of approximately 18%. Djibouti and Mauritania will follow with growth rates of around 5%, followed by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq (Figure 2).

Unemployment is considered one of the main challenges facing Arab economies. According to World Bank data, there is significant variation in unemployment rates in Arab countries compared to major world economies. According to the ESCWA report, unemployment rates among the Arab population are the highest in the world, with Palestine and Jordan recording the highest unemployment rates in 2021 at around 26% and 24% respectively, followed by Sudan at 21%. According to the findings of several international economic reports indicate, the current economic situation in non-oil Arab countries is very poor today and does not seem to improve in the future unless effective national policies and favorable international conditions are available. On the other hand, it is expected that Egypt, Bahrain, and Kuwait will record much lower rates of 6%, 4%, and 1%, respectively (Figure 2).

Source: International Monetary Fund data.

It is expected that the unemployment rate in the European Union will reach around 7%, with Greece and Spain recording relatively high rates of 14% each, while it will reach around 10% in Italy and around 7% in France, Belgium, and Sweden. In the United Kingdom, it is expected to reach around 5%. On the other hand, both the United States and Canada are expected to record rates of 4% and 7% respectively, while this rate will reach around 3% in both Germany and Switzerland (Figure 4).

Despite the pessimistic economic forecasts, the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have continuously grown over the past two decades, achieving significant leaps in GDP at current prices for all GCC countries combined from less than $400 billion in 2000 to more than $2 trillion in 2022, making the GCC economies among the world's top 10 largest economies. This significant achievement is driven by ambitious economic recovery plans, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 mega-projects, Dubai's Expo 2020, Qatar's investments related to the World Cup, as well as economic diversification programs.

 Source: International Monetary Fund data.

The Impact of Recession on Daily Life

During recession the important question remains about the impact on daily life. Climate shocks, regional conflicts, and the spread of pandemics have disrupted food production and distribution, as well as an increase in the cost of food. Layoffs are likely to be higher and more widespread, and employers may hold back on hiring, leading to a small to medium increase in unemployment rates. However, not everyone will be equally at risk. People vary in their exposure to the impacts of a recession based on their specialties and experience. Those with high demand for their specialties - whether they are front-line employees, IT engineers, or top-level executives - are likely to secure a job or keep their current positions and even receive salary increases and bonuses.

Source: International Monetary Fund data.

Summary

Reports and various sources indicate that major economies in the world, including China, the European Union, and the United States, will experience a slowdown in growth as a result of the blows that the global economy has received over the past two years, starting with the lockdowns due to the coronavirus pandemic, passing through the Russian-Ukrainian war, and currently, the likelihood of the global economy drifting towards recession due to inflation and interest rate hikes. The World Bank has warned of this recession amidst rising inflation rates and interest rates, declining investment, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund expects economic growth to decline to 2.7% in 2023 compared to 3.2% in 2022, which is a global slowdown that could cost the world over $17 trillion in lost productivity.

Accordingly, households and companies around the world are expected to face strong economic difficulties. There are also expectations of a worsening of global debt, which has surpassed $303 trillion, leading to more cases of defaults in poor countries.

Regarding oil, after oil prices experienced a significant increase due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, it is expected to decrease to below 100 during 2023. Generally, oil-producing countries remain in a better position than other countries during the recession due to high oil revenues.

On the other hand, Arab economies have shown variation in growth rates. While some Arab countries will experience a recession after the post-COVID-19 boom, such as Gulf Cooperation Council countries, especially Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, there are Arab countries that will achieve significant growth, such as Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, and Mauritania, with Libya expected to achieve a breakthrough in economic growth of up to 18%. In any case, despite the pessimistic economic expectations, Gulf Cooperation Council economies have grown continuously over the past two decades and achieved significant leaps, surpassing the trillion-dollar GDP threshold in 2022. Finally, in view of the pessimist economic growth expectations, there is an urgent need for economic programs to tackle the negative effects of the recession and mitigate its impact on poor households and small and medium enterprises.

Recommendations to confront the recession

The role of governments and policy makers is crucial in facing difficult economic times. The measures taken by the government will depend on the specific causes and characteristics of the recession, but the goal of these measures is to stabilize the economy, support individuals and businesses, and promote economic growth. Governments can play a role in mitigating the effects of a recession through a number of economic policies, including:

• Fiscal policy: Governments can use fiscal policy, such as increasing government spending or tax cuts, to stimulate demand and boost economic activity. Fiscal policy should target protecting the most vulnerable groups through targeted and temporary transfers, investing in enhancing productivity, and investing in human capital, digital transformation, green energy, and diversifying supply chains.
• Monetary policy: Central banks can use monetary policy, such as lowering interest rates, to make borrowing cheaper and stimulate economic activity (At a time when the economy is suffering from inflation, it will be difficult to use this policy).
• Infrastructure investment: Governments can invest in infrastructure projects, such as roads, bridges, and public transportation systems, to create job opportunities and stimulate economic activity.
• International cooperation: Governments can work together through international organizations to coordinate efforts and provide support during a recession, and to promote international trade to increase exports and stimulate economic activity.

For individuals and companies, here are some possible strategies to cope with a recession:

1- Cost-cutting: Review expenses and identify areas where spending can be reduced, especially non-essential expenses, and renegotiate contracts.

2- Increasing savings: Establish an emergency fund to help cope with financial difficulties.

3- Diversifying investments: Consider a diversified portfolio that includes both stocks and bonds to reduce overall risks.

4- Debt management: Prioritize paying off high-interest debts and consider repayment methods or renegotiating them to reduce monthly payments.

5- Embracing technology: Embrace new technologies and innovations to improve efficiency, productivity, and increase revenue.

6- Focusing on skill-building: Invest in personal and professional development to increase marketable skills and competitiveness.

7- Strengthening relationships: Strengthen relationships with customers, suppliers, and other stakeholders to increase flexibility and support during difficult times.

8- Seeking government support: Look into government programs, tax exemptions, or other financial incentives to help manage the recession period.

[1]International Monetary Fund: https://www.imf.org/ar/Blogs/Articles/2022/09/30/global-food-crisis-demands-support-for-people-open-trade-bigger-local-harvests.